President Donald Trump isn't the first incumbent president to run for reelection facing a deficit in the late summer polls. At this stage of the election cycle in 1948, no one thought Democrat Harry Truman had a prayer of winning as he sank in the polls.
Commentary By Stephen Moore
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Democrats keep attacking President Donald Trump's idea of a payroll tax cut for 140 million American workers. At the Democratic National Convention, Joe Biden said it would endanger Social Security. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York rejects the tax cut as "unworkable." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dismisses the plan as a "tax cut for major corporations."
It seems obvious that President Donald Trump is going to need a blockbuster economic revival if he hopes to win reelection in November.
Part of the equation to achieve that spring back is to resist trade protectionist temptations. But will he?
One way President Donald Trump built the best economy in 30 years was by attracting nearly $1 trillion of foreign capital to these shores. This money got invested in new business startups and expanded existing Made-in-America businesses. This "repatriation tax holiday" worked like a charm. Millions of jobs were created -- and this was a major contributing factor to the American economic sonic boom.
Not everyone is suffering job loss, income declines and financial devastation from the coronavirus pandemic. Some people are looking to get rich off the tragedy. Trial lawyers see COVID-19 casualties and images of asbestos and tobacco lawsuits dancing in their heads. They are drooling over the prospects of a $100 billion COVID-19 jackpot. The Democrats in Congress who the trial bar has spent years buying and paying can't wait to help in the grand heist.
Back in 2009, Nancy Pelosi infamously declared the best way to revive the economy was to dole out ever more generous food stamps and unemployment benefits. The more people collecting welfare the better. At the time, this notion seemed laughable. Now this economic illiteracy seems to have become a conventional wisdom.
"Are you lonesome tonight? / Do you miss me tonight? / Are you sorry we drifted apart? / Does your memory stray to a brighter, sunny day?" -- Elvis Presley
Loneliness is such a sad affair, as the saying goes, and our politicians have succeeded in turning America into a lonely nation by decree. We are going on four months now of lock-ins, business shutdowns and few, if any, social gatherings. What this is doing to the nation's psyche has been devastating.
If the "liberal" green movement had the political power during earlier periods of our nation's history that it has now, we would not have built the railroads. Also, there would be no interstate highway system, and the electric grid system that powers our country would be disconnected and shattered.
The June blockbuster jobs report is more evidence that the economy is healing, but this remains a brutal period for the some 30 million still unemployed Americans.
The most recent jobs report found that nine of the 10 states with unemployment rates above 14% are in liberal blue states. Ranked from highest to lowest, they are Nevada (25.3%), Hawaii (22.6%), Michigan (21.2%), California (16.3%), Rhode Island (16.3%), Massachusetts (16.3%), Delaware (15.8%), Illinois (15.2%), New Jersey (15.2%) and Washington state (15.1%). I call this the "blue-state jobs depression." The states with the lowest unemployment rates are all conservative red states: Nebraska (5.2%), Utah (8.5 %), Wyoming 8.8%, Arizona (8.9%) and Idaho (8.9%).
The coronavirus shutdown has flattened multiple industries across America -- everything from airlines and manufacturers to hospitals, retailers, oil and gas producers, and restaurants. Many of the 30 million small and large businesses in the country have reported a 30% reduction in revenues. Amid the carnage, one sector of the economy is thriving like never before in the history of the republic: the government.
It's the oddest thing. The more America's Big Tech companies such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter have contributed to keeping America's economy afloat during the coronavirus lockdown, the louder the voices get to break them up or to tie them up into regulatory knots.
The crisis of the coronavirus-induced economic lockdown and now the violent protests in the streets have unleashed a depression-level financial crisis and unprecedented human suffering -- especially in our inner cities. These events have also exposed a Grand Canyon-sized chasm that now separates how the left and the right see America today.
The recovery stage for our economy is finally here, and now the policy priority has to shift to getting people back on the job and getting businesses up and running. The best incentive to get businesses hiring again and get workers off unemployment is to suspend the payroll tax for the rest of the year.
America is starting to reopen for business across the country -- except for a handful of states where lockdown orders are expected to remain in place for weeks to come. With very few exceptions, the cities and states that have ordered their businesses to remain comatose and their millions of workers to go without paychecks are blue, blue, blue. This list includes New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, California and Oregon. They all have Democratic governors.
Usually, when a CEO severely underperforms peers, he or she is fired or handed a gold watch and given a quick retirement party. In the Democratic Party, a rotten performance is a qualification for the presidency.
I'm referring to the bizarre infatuation inside Democratic circles with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo as a possible replacement for Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Democratic operatives are increasingly nervous that the party has tethered itself to a fatally flawed nominee. Cuomo is now heralded as the sure bet to beat President Donald Trump this November.
The U.S. economy is at last moving into the recovery stage from the coronavirus, at least in most states.
One definite pattern has emerged: Republican states are reopening much more swiftly than Democratic states. A most notable case in point is the revival strategies of the four largest states. California and New York are closed for weeks to come; Florida and Texas are getting back in business now.
Battle lines are getting drawn up between the two parties on the next round of "stimulus" for the economy. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are demanding as much as $1 trillion more in federal money to bail out state budgets. The blue states of California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York are lining up to be first at the trough. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said there should be "no blue state bailout," and he is right.
We've known for years that China lies and cheats and steals when it comes to international trade. Now we've learned that it also spread the deadly disease COVID-19. Donald Trump ran for president five years ago as the ultimate China hawk on trade, and he was way ahead of the curve for protecting against China's devious behavior. He saved countless lives here in the United States by shutting down travel from China back in February.
America's domestic energy producers are under siege. The price of oil fell to below $5 a barrel on Monday, down from roughly $50 a barrel a year ago. This 90% drop in price is sending nearly the entire oil and gas industry into bankruptcy.
What is going on here?