Texas Senate to Leans Republican Following Paxton Win; TX-35 Makes Same Move; Redistricting Updates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the closely watched Texas Senate race, state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) easily defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R) in yesterday’s GOP runoff.

— With Paxton’s nomination, the Texas Senate race moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as Republicans went with a riskier general election candidate. But, as our rating suggests, riskier can still win.

— We are making the same move in TX-35, a San Antonio-area seat that was redrawn to have a mild red hue, as Democrats avoided nominating their weaker option.

— Elsewhere in the South, it appears South Carolina’s House map will retain one blue-leaning seat for the 2026 election.

Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change

Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating change

Texas Republicans roll the dice with Paxton

Before this month, the last time an elected sitting senator lost a primary was way back in 2012, when the long-serving Dick Lugar (R-IN) was defeated by the Tea Party-aligned Richard Mourdock (R), who would go on to fumble the general election for the GOP. Two years later, though, the 2014 cycle produced several competitive primaries, as a number of veteran Republicans were pushed from their right. That year, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who was seeking a third term, won renomination with relative ease, taking about 60% against a handful of lower-tier candidates.

A dozen years later, May 2026 has not been a kind month for incumbent GOP senators.

Less than two weeks ago, in neighboring Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) did not even make a primary runoff to keep his seat; he was squeezed out by Rep. Julia Letlow (R, LA-5) and state Treasurer John Fleming (R)—though the former ran with Trump’s support, both positioned themselves to Cassidy’s right.

Even though Cornyn arguably beat expectations by narrowly finishing first in March’s primary election, he was similarly routed by state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in yesterday’s runoff. Though Paxton undoubtedly benefitted from a late Trump endorsement, considering the totality of his win, it would probably be hard to say that Trump’s support was decisive.

When we first previewed this race in advance of the March 3 primary, we again went back to the 2014 cycle to flag the GOP primary for lieutenant governor. At the time, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R), who had a profile similar to that of Cornyn, was seeking a fourth term as lieutenant governor. As the Tea Party was ascendant in state GOP politics, Dewhurst lost his runoff by a 65%-35% vote to now-Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a harder-edged conservative. Though there were some differences between the scenarios—Cornyn had a more encouraging first-round primary showing than Dewhurst did—the topline result is almost identical: Paxton won the runoff in a 64%-36% vote.

In Louisiana, Cassidy only carried one parish, Orleans, with a majority of the vote, and he tended to run well in the higher-income areas—New Orleans’s 14th Ward, which contains Tulane University and parts of Uptown, for instance, was probably his best area in the state, giving him about two-thirds of the vote. Similarly, against Paxton, Cornyn was basically limited to monied areas.

One of the worst early signs for Cornyn on Election Night was when Dallas County, which has typically been his strongest large county in primaries and gave him just over 50% of the vote in March, was only going to him by a 51%-49% margin. As of this writing, it is narrowly going to Paxton—while the University Park precincts, near Southern Methodist University, continued to heavily back Cornyn, Paxton swept everything else.

In fact, though Cornyn needed an especially strong showing in Dallas County, it was a great bellwether for the state in terms of turnout: compared to the March round, Paxton slightly increased his total vote count both statewide and in Dallas County, while Cornyn got 45% fewer votes in the former and 30% fewer in the latter.

All told, the only counties that Cornyn actually carried were Austin’s Travis County—the state’s bluest in general elections—and Kenedy County, in South Texas. Though the latter may just be “noise” from a small county, Cornyn winning it by a 6-2 vote revives a contrarian trend there: from 2000 to 2020, Kenedy County backed the presidential winner just once.

During the primary campaign, Cornyn cautioned Republicans against rolling the dice with a less electorally impressive nominee. Though Paxton is serving his third term as state Attorney General, he has tended to run behind other state Republicans. In 2018, for instance, with the exception of Sen. Ted Cruz (R), who won a second term by 2.6%, Paxton was the worst-performing statewide Republican, as he won by 3.6% that cycle. Paxton has faced serious allegations of infidelity and corruption, and he was impeached by the Texas state House on charges that he had abused his office. The state Senate did not convict him, though. Cornyn and his allies hammered Paxton on all of this, to no avail.

With the general election now set, we are moving the Texas Senate race down from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. While 2026 may end up being a bluer year than what 2018 was, Texas seems to have moved to the right in the years since then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D, TX-16) gave Cruz a scare.

This morning, allies of state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, published an internal poll where he led Paxton 45%-38%, with a Libertarian getting 3%. While we don’t doubt that Talarico could get 45%, and we could easily see a higher-than-usual third party vote in this race, we’d likely need to see Talarico getting into, at least, the higher 40s before we would consider calling the race a true Toss-up. Republicans will be attacking Talarico over red meat cultural issues (which includes, literally, red meat—CNN’s Patrick Svitek summed up the GOP strategy here).

During the primary campaign, as Paxton’s own fundraising was not especially impressive, Cornyn and his allies spent close to $100 million. If this continues on into the general election, Paxton could end up winning, but Texas might become something of a “money pit” for national Republicans. Put a little differently, it might end up as a redux of Ohio during the last midterm: National Republican groups spent heavily to boost now-Vice President JD Vance, who, on a candidate-by-candidate basis, was handily outraised by his opponent, then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D). Vance ultimately won by 6 points—not a great showing compared to Republicans in other statewide Ohio races that year—as Democrats won most of the other key races on the national Senate map.

Coincidentally, today (May 27, 2026) is the 65th anniversary of an election that marked a sea change in Texas politics: John Tower (R) won the Senate special election to replace Vice President Lyndon Johnson (D), a story recounted in James Broussard’s Anatomy of an Upset and the Birth of a Two-Party State: The Election of John Tower to the U.S. Senate from Texas in 1961. Tower was the first modern Republican to win a Senate race in Texas, and Cornyn holds the same seat Tower did (Phil Gramm, another noteworthy Republican, held it between Tower and Cornyn). A Democrat winning this seat, as Talarico is trying to do, would represent another political earthquake in Texas. We would still be surprised if it happened, but it’s more plausible now than it was before yesterday.

It is possible that Paxton winning the primary will have an impact down the ballot. National Journal’s Kirk Bado noted in Tuesday’s Hotline that not only will Paxton’s win force national Republicans to spend more on the Senate race, but the Paxton price tag will also include “extra investments House Republicans will need to make to protect their seats as Paxton likely drags down the GOP ticket.”

There are not that many competitive seats in Texas following a Republican gerrymander, nor were there many under the previous GOP-drawn map. Two of the five seats that Republicans dramatically altered to take from Democrats—TX-32 in the Dallas area and TX-9 in Houston—remain Safe Republican in our ratings. In South Texas, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) remains rated Leans Democratic and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) is in Toss-up; Trump’s 2024 margin in both seats was increased in the remap.

The gerrymander also created a new seat designed to be won by Republicans that takes in part of San Antonio’s Bexar County as well as some outlying red areas to its east. We still favor them there, but it seems like a more viable Democratic target following Tuesday night’s results.

The 35th District has durably voted Republican in recent elections, but the margins can be narrow. Trump carried it by a little over 10 points in 2024, although Cruz’s 2024 margin there was a slimmer 4 points. Trump’s margin was only 2 points in 2020, and Cruz won it by less than half a point in 2018. So it’s typically less red than the state as a whole, and Paxton could very well lose it even if he wins statewide, which could have some bearing on the House race. The district is majority Latino, but it’s different from the aforementioned South Texas seats both because it is not as Latino as those seats and because it hasn’t swung dramatically toward Republicans in recent years. Instead, its Republican lean has been more consistent over time.

The district hosted runoffs for both party House nominations on Tuesday. The Democratic contest got more national attention because of Maureen Galindo, a housing activist who finished with a small plurality in the first round of voting and made antisemitic comments. Galindo was widely condemned by leading Democrats, who instead backed Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy. A mysterious Super PAC that reporters discovered likely has ties to Republicans sought to elevate Galindo, just the latest instance of primary meddling, which has become a bipartisan phenomenon. Meanwhile, national Democrats spent on behalf of Garcia, who won fairly clearly, 64%-36%. Garcia will have to prove himself in a tough district.

In their runoff, Republicans nominated Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R, TX-15), instead of state Rep. John Lujan. Trump backed De La Cruz, while Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) backed Lujan, who has won some tough races in a swing state House district and thus is more of a proven commodity. While Lujan has more electoral experience, there may or may not be much of a candidate quality difference between himself and De La Cruz (or, at least, not nearly as much of one as there would have been between Galindo and Garcia on the Democratic side).

Overall, the combination of Democrats not nominating Galindo, Republicans nominating the weaker Paxton in the Senate race, and the broader, challenging political environment for Republicans prompts us to move this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Redistricting updates

Last week, we analyzed map proposals in Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, suggesting how we might rate these pro-Republican maps if they were passed. These maps would all effectively eliminate a single Black Democratic seat apiece, made possible by the Supreme Court’s Callais decision.

But national Republicans on Tuesday were dealt a clear setback in South Carolina, and a possible one in Alabama.

Let’s take the Palmetto State first. Republicans in the state legislature were trying to pass a new map before early voting for the state’s primary commenced. It started on Tuesday and saw heavy first day turnout. While the map passed the state House, there was not enough support to get the map through the state Senate before early voting began, particularly as efforts to speed up the process hit snags and some Senate Republicans worried both about whether the map would perform as intended and whether changing the map after early voting had started would open the map to legal challenges.

The upshot is “that South Carolina will not have a new congressional map for the 2026 election,” as Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) put it in a statement reacting to the Senate’s vote on Tuesday. So after a series of victories for Republicans in the redistricting wars, they were dealt a setback in South Carolina.

Assuming that this effort is indeed dead for 2026, long-serving Rep. Jim Clyburn (D, SC-6) is safe to return to Congress on the current map.

Also on Tuesday, a three-judge federal judicial panel ruled against Alabama’s efforts to use a map likely to produce a 6-1 Republican House delegation, up from 5-2 on the current map. We went into the history in our writeup last week, and this won’t be the final word, as the state appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Stay tuned.

Another notable legal development on Tuesday came in Florida, where a lower court judge declined to block the new Republican gerrymander there. Critics of the map appealed the ruling, but despite state constitutional restrictions on partisan gerrymandering, it would be a surprise if Florida courts prevented the map from being used in 2026. Louisiana, meanwhile, continues to progress toward its remap, which would net Republicans a seat.

Removing South Carolina from the redistricting list does slightly reduce our expectation of GOP gains specifically from redistricting.

Our running tally, which we laid out a couple of weeks ago, showed a Republican gain of seven seats, with a range of 6-10 GOP gains depending on how a few Toss-up races go (see that piece for more details on how we came up with our estimate). That estimate included a Republican gain in South Carolina, so the estimate is now a GOP gain of six seats, with a range of 5-9. This does still include a Republican gain in Alabama, so the tally is still in a little bit of flux. And, as we always say, a precise accounting of redistricting’s effects will have to wait until after the election.

Kyle Kondik is a Political Analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and the Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.

J. Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. He also serves as the Center’s Media Relations Coordinator. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman.

See Other Political Commentary by Kyle Kondik.

See Other Political Commentary by J. Miles Coleman.

See Other Political Commentary.

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.