— Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) defied the partisan lean of his state in 2015, but he will have to navigate an increasingly partisan electorate to win again. He’ll need Republican support, but he also must energize black voters.
— Louisiana’s unique jungle primary has shaped the contours of state elections for nearly 50 years and will be a key feature of the 2019 election.
— Regionalism has always been salient in Louisiana politics, and it should be a decisive factor in which Republican candidate makes a potential runoff with Edwards: Rep. Ralph Abraham (R, LA-5) or businessman Eddie Rispone (R).
Heading into the 2018 cycle, Democrats seemed to have many advantages, as the out-party typically does in midterm years. However, one factor that was decidedly slanted against them was the Senate map. A majority of the Democratic caucus — 26 of 49 members — faced the electorate. Further, 10 Democratic incumbents on the ballot represented states that President Trump carried in 2016. In many cases, to win reelection, these senators had to perform significantly better than Hillary Clinton did two years ago.