MAGA Is Winning Primaries. The Next Challenge Is November

For years, the political class has confidently predicted the demise of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement and President Donald Trump’s America First agenda.

Trump was supposedly finished after January 6. Finished after the indictments. Finished after Stormy Daniels and E. Jean Carroll. Finished after every cable-news monologue insisting Republican voters were finally tiring of Trump’s combative style and America First agenda.

As Mark Twain famously observed, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” So too are the reports of MAGA’s demise.

Recent primary elections delivered another unmistakable message: the Republican base remains firmly aligned with Trump, his agenda, and his vision for the country.

The most symbolic race was Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, where longtime Trump antagonist Thomas Massie lost to Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein.

Massie had become a hero to anti-Trump Republicans precisely because he opposed Trump so consistently. The media portrayed him as a courageous “independent thinker” bravely standing up to Trump.

Republican primary voters saw something different – a congressman more interested in frustrating Trump than in advancing the agenda Republican voters elected him to implement. Massie’s district overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2024.

Republican primary voters are making something unmistakably clear: they expect Republicans to advance the agenda they voted for.

Texas Senator John Cornyn lost his primary race, rare for an incumbent U.S. senator. While not openly hostile to Trump like Massie, Cornyn became associated with the more institutional wing of the GOP Senate conference, often prioritizing Senate norms and process over aggressively advancing Trump’s agenda.

There is a major distinction between occasional disagreement and perpetual obstruction.

No serious political movement can function if members of its own party routinely undermine its leadership at every critical moment. Trump was elected to secure the border, revive American manufacturing, restrain the administrative state, and reject endless foreign entanglements. Republican voters understood exactly what they were voting for. Yet some Republicans behaved as though their primary responsibility was stopping the leader of their party rather than helping him govern.

Ironically, Democrats understand party discipline far better than Republicans do. Senate Democrats almost always vote as a bloc. House Democrats reliably unite to advance their leadership’s priorities. Republicans, by contrast, often seem to specialize in self-inflicted wounds.

Over the years, GOP voters have watched supposed Republican “mavericks” derail Republican priorities at crucial moments: John McCain saving Obamacare with his infamous thumbs-down vote; Mitt Romney positioning himself as the GOP’s leading Trump critic; Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski routinely becoming decisive swing votes against Republican initiatives.

At some point Republican voters understandably ask: are these lawmakers opposing policies on genuine principle — or simply opposing Trump because doing so earns favorable media coverage and invitations to Beltway cocktail parties?

Many anti-Trump Republicans became more popular in newsrooms than in their own districts.

That is why Trump’s endorsements continue carrying extraordinary political weight. Republican voters increasingly see these primaries as referendums on whether elected Republicans will actually advance the America First agenda voters chose at the ballot box.

Kentucky and Texas were not isolated. In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, celebrated endlessly by anti-Trump media after the 2020 election, failed even to make the runoff in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan fared even worse.

In Kentucky, Trump-backed Republican Andy Barr captured the nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Mitch McConnell, long viewed by grassroots conservatives as the face of the old GOP establishment.

In Louisiana, Senator Bill Cassidy — another Republican frequently at odds with Trump voters — was effectively finished politically after being routed in his primary.

This is not “revenge,” despite how the media frames it. It is accountability.

That said, Republicans should not confuse primary dominance with guaranteed general-election success.

Recent polling, including Rasmussen Report’s generic congressional ballot, suggests Republicans may face a challenging midterm environment despite Trump’s continued dominance within the GOP.

Historically, the president’s party often loses House seats in midterm elections. Republicans ignore that reality at their peril.

Some anti-Trump commentators are already arguing that Trump’s successful effort to remove internal GOP dissenters could alienate moderates and independents needed in competitive districts. That concern should not be dismissed outright.

The challenge for Republicans is balancing party cohesion with broader electoral appeal. Primary voters clearly want candidates who will fight for the America First agenda rather than obstruct it from within.

But winning primaries is only the first step. Republicans must also persuade independents and swing voters that America First policies improve everyday life by delivering economic growth, secure borders, lower inflation, energy independence, and public safety.

If Republicans remain focused on those kitchen-table concerns, MAGA’s strength in the primaries could translate into general-election success.

If they become consumed by personality conflicts and internal vendettas, Democrats could benefit politically even while remaining deeply unpopular.

Still, one conclusion from this primary season is inescapable. Despite years of predictions of “Trump fatigue,” the Republican electorate remains intensely loyal to the broader America First movement that Trump created.

MAGA remains the dominant force within Republican politics. The larger question is whether Republicans can translate primary enthusiasm into a winning national coalition in November. And the reports of its demise remain greatly exaggerated.

Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a Colorado-based ophthalmologist who writes frequently about medicine, science, and public policy.

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