Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party now leads Republicans by six points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 41% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The advantage for Democrats has increased three points since March, when they led by three points, 45% to 42%. The position for Republicans is now a net nine points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 2,161 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 13-14 17-20, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Democrats’ lead is due to both greater partisan intensity and their eight-point margin among independents. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 82% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41% would vote for Democrats and 33% for Republicans, while eight percent (8%) say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 18% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is a net 11 points, with women voters preferring Democrats by a 50% to 39% margin, while men are evenly divided 43% to 43% between Republicans and Democrats.

Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 66% of black voters, 41% of Hispanics and 42% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 45% of whites, 21% of black voters, 41% of Hispanics and 42% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by a 15-point margin (47% to 32%) among voters under 30, while voters in their 40s favor Republicans by a two-point margin, 43% to 41%.

Ninety percent (90%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 73% of conservatives would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by a 26-point margin, 53% to 27%.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of government employees and 48% of private sector workers would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while a slight plurality of retirees prefer Republicans.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats now lead by a 17-point margin (52% to 35%) among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year. Republicans lead by two points (46% to 44%) among those with annual incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.

Among voters who say America is going in the right direction, 82% favor Republican congressional candidates, but among those who think the country is on the wrong track, 73% would vote for Democrats.

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 79% would vote for Republican congressional candidates, while 89% of Kamala Harris voters prefer Democrats.

Harris continues to be the favorite for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nomination.

Six years after George Floyd died in Minneapolis, most voters don’t think black Americans benefited from the 2020 protests inspired by his death.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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