Archive

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending June 2, 2012

Friday was a dismal day for Team Obama with the unemployment rate inching back up and throwing cold water on hopes for an economic recovery. It’s not the kind of news the president wants to hear as he campaigns for reelection.

After all, as Scott Rasmussen contends in his latest syndicated column, “The economy matters more than campaign tactics, and the indicators at the moment are mixed at best. Additionally, most Americans believe that the president's instincts lead in the wrong direction when it comes to finding solutions.”

That helps explain why for the first time in five-and-a-half years of regular tracking, half of voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to the economy, the issue they rate as by far the most important to how they will vote.

Obama’s Full-Month Index Rating Matches High for This Year

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

The president’s full-month Presidential Approval Index rating is up three points from April, giving him his best rating since February.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.7%, Democrats 33.8%, Unaffiliateds 30.5%

The number of Democrats and Republicans in the United States increased slightly in May, with voters in President Obama’s party now at their highest level this year. During May, 35.7% of Americans considered themselves Republicans.  That’s up from 35.1% in April, the lowest level measured since November of last year.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

50% Trust Republicans More on Economy

For the first time in five-and-a-half years of regular tracking, half of voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to the economy, the issue they rate by far as most important to how they will vote. Voters now trust Republicans more on five of the 10 major issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports, Democrats more on two, and they're tied on three.

Two national surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on May 24-25 & 28-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Romney 46%, Obama 44%

Mitt Romney has inched ahead of President Obama in Ohio, taking the lead in the key battleground state after the president has led there for several months.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 46% support to Obama’s 44%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on May 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

31% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, May 27.

This finding is up one point from the previous week and three points from the week before that.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 21-27, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Rasmussen Employment Index Reaches Highest Level In Over Four Years

The Rasmussen Employment Index jumped eight points in May to 88.3, the highest finding since January 2008. The Employment Index is up eight points from the beginning of the year  and is up 11 points from this time last year.  In February, the Employment Index was at 87.7, the highest level in nearly three and a half years. The survey of 8,804 working Americans was conducted in May 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology .

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 47%, Mandel (R) 42%

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown now holds a five-point lead over Republican challenger Josh Mandel in his reelection bid in Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Buckeye State shows Brown with 47% support to Mandel’s 42%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on May 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 42%, Democrats 39%

Republicans lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, May 27.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Republicans led by four the week before, 43% to 39%.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from May 21-27, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

55% Support Repeal of Obama’s Health Care Plan

Most voters still want to repeal President Obama’s national health care law as they have consistently in regular surveys since it was passed by Congress over two years ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 55% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law while 39% are at least somewhat opposed.

Those figures include 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 25% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- The Week Ending May 26, 2012

The Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial start of summer for many Americans, and it’s a good time to take stock of where the nation’s at.

First, there’s the size of government. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Likely U.S. Voters prefer a government with fewer services and lower taxes over one with more services and higher taxes. That's consistent with findings in regular surveys for years. Just 25% prefer a government with more services and higher taxes.

Indiana: Romney 48%, Obama 42%

Mitt Romney holds a six-point lead over President Obama in a head-to-head matchup in Indiana. 

A new Rasmussen Reports online survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Romney earning 48% of the vote to Obama’s 42%.  Five percent (5%) prefers some other candidate, and another five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

It is important to note that this survey was conducted entirely online. Survey participants were selected at random from a panel provided by a third party. This Indiana survey of 600 Likely Voters was conducted May 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Indiana Senate: Mourdock (R) 42%, Donnelly (D) 42%

Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the U.S. Senate race in Indiana shows Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly and Tea Party-backed Treasurer Richard Mourdock in a tie.

Both men draw 42% support from Likely Voters in Indiana, according to a new statewide survey. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate while 14% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

It is important to note that this survey was conducted entirely online. Survey participants were selected at random from an panel provided by a third party. This Indiana survey of 600 Likely Voters was conducted May 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 48%, Smith (R) 41%

Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. holds a seven-point lead over Republican challenger Tom Smith in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania finds Casey, who is seeking a second six-year term, with 48% support to Smith’s 41%. Three percent (3%) favor some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted May 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

30% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, May 20.

This finding is up two points from the previous week.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 14-20, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports 30surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 41%

President Obama now holds a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a state considered essential to his reelection bid.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Keystone State shows the president with 47% support, while the putative Republican presidential nominee picks up 41% of the vote. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted May 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 39%

Republicans hold a four-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, May 20. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. This gap is down from last week when Republicans led by seven but is consistent with the level of support the GOP has been earning since early March.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from May 14-20, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

64% Prefer a Government With Fewer Services and Lower Taxes

Most voters continue to prefer a more hands-off government in return for lower taxes.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. Voters prefer a government with fewer services and lower taxes over one with more services and higher taxes. That's unchanged from last month and consistent with findings in regular surveys since late 2006. Just 25% prefer a government with more services. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure which size government they prefer. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook .

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 16-17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending May 19, 2012

Unlike four years ago, Barack Obama now has a record to run on – and run against. The economy, the health care law, bailouts, stimulus spending, the changes from the so-called Arab Spring and much more will be hot topics of discussion in the months ahead.

Right now, Republican challenger Mitt Romney and the president are closely matched in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but improving economic perceptions would cheer the Obama camp. “Forget same-sex marriage and the host of other buzz issues,” Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest syndicated column.  “If the economy improves, Obama will be reelected. If it gets worse, he will lose.”

Democrats regard North Carolina as so important to the president’s reelection that they are holding their national convention there this summer. However, Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over Obama in the Tar Heel State.  More predictably, Romney still posts a double-digit lead over the president in GOP-friendly Nebraska.

North Carolina Governor: McCrory (R) 50%, Dalton (D) 41%

In the first Rasmussen Reports survey since their primary wins last week, Republican Pat McCrory reaches the 50% level of support against Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton in North Carolina’s 2012 gubernatorial contest.

The former Charlotte mayor now leads Dalton 50% to 41% in a telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Carolina. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on May 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.