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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending September 29, 2012

The presidential race remains competitive even though voters still trust Mitt Romney slightly more than President Obama when it comes to handling economic matters. Will Wednesday night’s first presidential debate make a difference?

With a race this close, possibly but not likely, Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest weekly syndicated column. “Events in the real world matter more than debates,” Scott writes. “Only in the absence of other news could a slight change in the race coming out of the debates be decisive.”

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Washington Governor: Inslee (D) 46%, McKenna (R) 45%

Rasmussen Reports' first look at the gubernatorial race in Washington shows Republican Rob McKenna and Democrat Jay Inslee running neck-and-neck.
 
The latest telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Evergreen State finds Inslee with 46% support to 45% for McKenna.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Washington survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

51% Trust Romney More on Economy, 44% Trust Obama More

Mitt Romney continues to hold a seven-point lead in voter trust over President Obama when it comes to the economy, by far the number one voting issue. The candidates remain more closely divided in several other key issue areas, but voters are shifting toward Romney when it comes to national security.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters trust Romney more when it comes to handling the economy. Forty-four percent (44%) trust the president more. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on September 25-26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona: Romney 52%, Obama 42%

Mitt Romney still holds a double-digit lead over President Obama in Arizona.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Romney with 52% of the vote to Obama’s 42%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on September 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

36% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, September 23.

That’s up a point from 35% the week before and down just one point from 37% two weeks ago, the highest level of optimism since late June 2009.

From July 25 through December 11 of last year, voter confidence in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the George W. Bush administration, remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. That finding began climbing in early January of this year to a high of 34% in the second week of February and had been in the high 20s to low 30s in weekly tracking until three weeks ago.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen September 17-23, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts: Obama 55%, Romney 40%

President Obama remains well ahead of Mitt Romney in Massachusetts.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters shows Obama with 55% support to Romney's 40%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Massachusetts survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted September 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona Senate: Flake (R) 47%, Carmona (D) 41%

The U.S. Senate race in Arizona has grown tighter in the first Rasmussen Reports survey conducted since the party primaries in late August.

The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Republican Congressman Jeff Flake with 47% of the vote to Democrat Richard Carmona’s 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on September 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

45% Say U.S. and Allies are Winning War on Terror

As anger against America spreads in the Middle East, fewer voters believe the United States is winning the War on Terror and is safer today than before the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  Voter pessimism about the situation in Afghanistan also continues to grow. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror, while 21% think the terrorists are winning that war.  Another 26% say neither side has the advantage.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan Senate: Stabenow (D) 53%, Hoekstra (R) 37%

Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is comfortably ahead in her bid for reelection in Michigan.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Michigan Voters shows Stabenow with 53% support, while her GOP challenger, former Congressman Peter Hoekstra, gets 37% of the vote. Just three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan was conducted on September 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts Senate: Brown (R) 48%, Warren (D) 48%

Incumbent Republican Scott Brown and his Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren remain tied in the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts.
 
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds Brown and Warren each picking up 48% of the vote.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on September 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 43%

Republicans continue to lead Democrats by just one point on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending September 23, 2012.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 43% would choose the Democrat instead.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from September 17-23, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan: Obama 54%, Romney 42%

President Obama now earns over 50% of the vote in Michigan.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama with 54% support to 42% for Mitt Romney. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This survey of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan was conducted on September 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most Still Favor Health Care Repeal, 42% Say It’s Likely

Most voters still want to repeal President Obama’s national health care law, but voters are now evenly divided over whether repeal is likely. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters favor repeal of the health care law, and 41% are opposed. This includes 41% who Strongly Favor repeal of the law and 32% who Strongly Oppose it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 21-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 49%, Smith (R) 42%

Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. still holds the lead in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters finds Casey with 49% support to 42% for his Republican challenger Tom Smith. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire Governor: Lamontagne (R) 48%, Hassan (D) 44%

Rasmussen Reports' first look at New Hampshire's gubernatorial race since the state's party primaries finds Republican Ovide Lamontagne slightly ahead of Democrat Maggie Hassan.  A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Granite State shows Lamontagne earning 48% of the vote, while Hassan picks up 44% support.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending September 21, 2012

Mitt Romney’s newly aired comment that 47% of Americans are dependent on the government and locked in to vote for President Obama has prompted debate all week. Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest newspaper column that Romney’s remark like Obama’s notorious comment about small-town voters bitterly clinging to their guns and religion highlights the condescending attitude the political elites have towards voters.  “If he wins the White House, the only way for Romney to succeed will be to side with the nation's voters and throw out the club in Washington,” Scott writes. “That will be great news for the country but bad news for political insiders on both sides of the partisan aisle.”

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 39%

President Obama has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Obama with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Economy Continues to Top List of Most Important Issues

The economy remains by far the top issue on voters’ minds as the November elections near. Health care and government corruption are a distant second on a list of 10 top issues regularly surveyed by Rasmussen Reports.

A new national telephone survey finds that 80% of Likely U.S. Voters rate the economy as Very Important to how they will vote in the next election. That's consistent with regular tracking since January 2008. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on September 13-14 and 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 46%

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin now has a slight lead over former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s volatile U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds Baldwin with 49% support to Thompson’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 46%

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin now has a slight lead over former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s volatile U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds Baldwin with 49% support to Thompson’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.