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Partisan Trends
Partisan Trends: Number of Unaffiliateds Jumps to Highest Total Since 2007
Monday, February 01, 2010
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In January, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell another tenth-of-a-percentage point. Now the number of Democrats is at the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports. However, in January, the number of Republicans in the country dropped by nearly two percentage points. Currently, 35.4% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 35.5% a month ago and 36.0 two months ago. Prior to last month, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present. The number of Republicans is now down to 32.3%. The number of Republicans in the country has stayed between 32.3% and 34.05% in every month for the past 18 months. The number of adults not affiliated with either major party is now up to 32.3%. That’s the highest number of unaffiliateds since the summer of 2007. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. As has been the case in every month over the past seven years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 3.1 percentage points, up from 1.5 percentage points a month ago. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. Between November 2004 and 2006, the Democratic advantage in partisan identification grew by 4.5 percentage points. That foreshadowed the Democrats' big gains in the 2006 midterm elections. The gap grew by another 1.5 percentage points between November 2006 and November 2008 heading into the election of President Obama. Heading into 2010, the gap has closed a bit. The number of Democrats is down six points since November 2008, while the number of Republicans is down a point-and-a-half. Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not likely voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats. Obama's overall approval rating in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll inched up a bit in January for the first improvement since September. A month-by-month review of the president’s ratings shows that they held steady in August and September before declining over the past several months. Data from our monthly partisan identification survey is used to set weighting targets for other Rasmussen Reports surveys. The targets are based on results from the previous three months. Republicans currently lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, a significant turnaround from a year ago. In Election 2010 Senate races, Democratic incumbents are behind in Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas and Pennsylvania. In California, Indiana and Wisconsin. Democratic Senate incumbents are in potentially competitive races. A commentary by Rhodes Cook suggests that “For Democrats, It’s Time to Worry.” Republicans lead open-seat races in Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. Republican incumbents lead in North Carolina and Iowa. A commentary by political analyst Larry Sabato notes that if the election were held today, “The (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.” Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIES75% Are Angry At Government’s Current Policies Americans Reject Keynesian Economics What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Republicans Still Trusted More on Most Key Issues 45% Agree With CBS’ Decision To Run Tebow Ad, 30% Disagree 83% Blame Deficit on Politicians’ Unwillingness To Cut Spending Holder's Premature Mirandization of Suspect By Debra J. Saunders Politically Speaking, Populist Isn’t Popular, But Conservative Is Obama’s Budget: Fiscal Armageddon By Howard Rich Advertisement
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