Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt are dead even in the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey of the hotly contested race for the U.S. Senate in Missouri.

Both candidates capture 46% of the vote in a new telephone survey of Missouri voters. Two percent (2%) favor some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are not sure which candidate they will vote for.

Blunt, a member of Congress since 1997, has held the number two GOP position in the House, serving as minority whip. His son was governor of Missouri from 2005 to 2009. Carnahan, currently Missouri’s secretary of state, is the daughter of an ex-senator and a former governor. The seat they are contesting for is being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Kit Bond.

Nearly all the numbers in this early survey show an uncommonly close match between two members of well-known Missouri political families. Blunt, for example, leads by 17 points among men, but Carnahan has a 13-point lead among female voters.

Carnahan captures 84% of the state’s Democratic vote, while Blunt nets 85% of the GOP vote. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Blunt by eight points.

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Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Missouri voters have a favorable view of Blunt, with 18% whose opinion of him is very favorable. Thirty-three percent (33%) view him unfavorably, including 15% with a very unfavorable view. Only 10% have no opinion of the Republican hopeful.

Carnahan has 52% favorables and 42% unfavorables. Twenty-three percent (23%) regard her very favorably and 22% very unfavorably. Just six percent (6%) aren’t sure what they think of Carnahan.

Only nine percent (9%) of Missouri voters say the U.S. economy is in good shape, while 47% view it as poor. Thirty-two percent (32%) say the economy is getting better, but 44% say it’s getting worse.

Forty-four percent (44%) approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 56% disapprove. This is worse than Obama’s ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. John McCain narrowly carried Missouri over Obama last November.

In Missouri, 59% are opposed to the health care plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats while 38% favor the proposal. Those who strongly oppose it outnumber those who strongly support it by two-to-one.

Nationally, 56% now oppose the health care plan.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters in Missouri say passage of the president’s plan will make the quality of health care worse. Twenty-seven percent (27%) believe it will make it better.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the plan will make the cost of health care go up, compared to 15% who believe it will force down costs.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Missouri voters believe the health care plan will drive up the deficit, and 79% say it is at least somewhat likely to require an increase in taxes on the middle class.

But 58% approve of the job Missouri Governor Jay Nixon is doing, including 17% who strongly approve. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disapprove of the Democrat’s job performance, with 14% who strongly disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying other potential 2010 Senate match-ups and already has recently released findings from Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Numbers for potential races in California, Iowa, New York and Ohio will be released later this week.

We have also released data on the 2009 governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia and the 2010 Governor’s race in Colorado.

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