Republican hopeful Mark Kirk finds himself starting out even in a Senate race against his likeliest Democratic competitor, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Kirk, a member of the House from the northern suburbs of Chicago, with 41% of the vote while Giannoulias attracts 38%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and 17% are not sure.

The sole Republican in the survey fares much better against the other top Democratic contender, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich. Kirk beats Jackson by 17 points, 47% to 30%. Six percent (6%) like another candidate, and again 17% are undecided.

All three have announced their candidacies, but Giannoulias, who is also from Chicago, is considered the favorite in the February 2 Democratic Primary to win the nomination for the seat once held by Barack Obama. Roland Burris, the Democrat named to the seat by Blagojevich following Obama’s election as president, has been surrounded by controversy ever since and has announced he will not seek election to a full six-year term.

Kirk is the most prominent Illinois Republican in the race at this time. But other Republicans are challenging him for the Senate nomination to be decided by a state primary next year.

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Illinois, with a favorite son now in the White House, runs largely Democratic in statewide races, so much can change in the months ahead. It’s unclear, too, how much Kirk will benefit next year from the current controversy over the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats.

Among those who favor the health care reform plan, Giannoulias leads Kirk 68% to 17%. But Kirk has an even larger lead – 67% to nine percent (9%) – among voters opposed to the plan.

Illinois voters overall are evenly divided in their views of the reform proposal, but, as in much of the nation, those who strongly oppose it (39%) outnumber those who are strongly in favor (29%). When it comes to health care decisions, 49% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies, but nearly as many (44%) fear insurers more.

The president’s popularity is sure to be a key to the vote as well. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Illinois voters approve of the job Obama is doing, but 42% don’t. This is well ahead of his approval rating nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll but is down since June.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters say they are less likely to vote for any Democratic candidate because of the Blagojevich scandal and the state budget crisis. Seven percent (7%) say they are more likely to vote Democratic, while 60% say the scandal and the state’s budget problems will have no impact on their vote.

In a race against Giannoulias, Kirk gets 71% of the Republican vote. Giannoulias earns 63% Democratic support. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Kirk 45% to 18%.

Kirk picks up 76% of Republicans in a match-up with Jackson, who has the backing of just 51% of Democrats in the state. Unaffiliateds break for Kirk again, this time by a 51% to 12% margin.

All three candidates are relatively unknown. Just 10% have a Very Favorable opinion of Kirk while 4% hold a Very Unfavorable view. The numbers for Giannoulias are 13% Very Favorable and 11% Very Unfavorable. Jackson earns Very Favorable reviews from 13% and Very Unfavorable reviews from 14%.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Illinois voters said in June they would definitely vote against Burris if he ran in 2010.

Former Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, who succeeded to the state’s top office following Blagojevich’s impeachment, is expected to seek a full term as governor next year.

Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of Quinn’s job performance, down 10 points from June, while 49% now disapprove.

But 53% have a favorable view of Quinn, while 43% see him unfavorably.

State Comptroller Daniel Hynes, a fellow Democrat, is challenging Quinn for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He has 46% favorables and 26% unfavorables.

State Senator Bill Brady polls best among several GOP hopefuls for the governor’s office, with 29% favorables and 21% unfavorables. But 50% of voters don’t know him well enough to have an opinion.

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