Election 2012: Florida Senate

Friday, April 27, 2012

Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson now posts double-digit leads over all three of his Republican challengers in Florida’s 2012 U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters shows Nelson with 47% support to 36% for Congressman Connie Mack, his leading GOP opponent. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

For Mack, who has been criticized in recent weeks for running a tepid campaign, the numbers are a sizable setback from early March when he was slightly ahead. In February, the two were tied.

Nelson, elected to the Senate in 2000 to fill the seat vacated by Mack’s father, posts a 44% to 30% lead over former Senator George LeMieux. Nine percent (9%) prefer another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Businessman Mike McCalister trails Nelson 48% to 29%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.

For LeMieux, tainted in Republican ranks by his association with former Governor Charlie Crist, and McCalister, a political newcomer, these are also their worst showings to date.

All three Republicans show a noticeable drop-off in support within their own party, highlighting the voter unhappiness with the current candidates that almost prompted Florida Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater to jump into the GOP race. But Atwater announced last weekend that he would not run.

One-out-of-five Florida Republicans now expresses a preference for Nelson over any of the GOP candidates. Republicans will pick their Senate candidate in an August 14 primary.

Among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties, Nelson now posts double-digit leads over all three Republican hopefuls.

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This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nelson is viewed Very Favorably by 18% of Florida voters and Very Unfavorably by 14%. This marks little change from a month ago.

Thirteen percent (13%) share a Very Favorable opinion of Mack, down four points from March, while 12% regard him Very Unfavorably. For LeMieux, Very Favorables are 10%, Very Unfavorables 15%. McCalister is seen Very Favorably by eight percent (8%) and Very Unfavorably by 11%.

Nelson and Mack are by far the best-known candidates in the race even though LeMiuex served in the U.S. Senate from 2009 to 2011 when Crist appointed him to fill out the unexpired term of Mel Martinez. LeMieux chose not to seek election to a full term in 2010 because Crist was a candidate in that race.  At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Florida, with its large number of retirees, has consistently registered high opposition to President Obama’s national health care law and is one of the leaders in the constitutional challenge of the law now before the U.S. Supreme Court. Just 39% of voters in the state at least somewhat favor the requirement in the law that all Americans have health insurance, while 59% are opposed to it. This includes 18% who Strongly Favor the mandate and 38% who Strongly Oppose it.

Nelson who voted for the health care law in the Senate earns overwhelming support against all three Republicans among voters who favor the health insurance requirement. The GOP candidates hold more modest leads among those who oppose it.

Just 19% of Florida voters think the federal government has the constitutional authority to force everyone to buy health insurance. Seventy-two percent (72%) disagree and say the government does not have that power. That’s comparable to findings nationally. 

Fifty percent (50%) of Florida voters would like to see the Supreme Court overturn the health care law, but 35% want the court to uphold its legality. Fifty-eight percent (58%) expect the court to overturn the law, while just 25% think it will be upheld. This is in line with voter sentiments nationally. 

Mack is the only Republican who leads Nelson among male voters, but like the other GOP hopefuls, he trails the Democrat by more than 20 points among female voters.

Nelson now posts leads among most age and income demographic categories against all three of his challengers.

Elections for 33 U.S. Senate seats will be held in November, 23 of which are currently held by Democrats. In addition to Florida, Rasmussen Reports has recently polled 2012 U.S. Senate races in Arizona, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia and Missouri. All but Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska and Nevada are close at this stage.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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