Americans Rate 2021 One of the Worst Years Ever

It’s New Year’s Eve and Americans are ready to say good-bye and good riddance to 2021.

Less Than Half Will Make New Year’s Resolutions

Planning to do better in 2022? You’re in the minority, as most Americans won’t be making New Year’s resolutions, but those who do expect to keep them.

After a Bad Financial Year, Few Americans Think 2022 Will Be Better

Nearly half of Americans say their personal finances got worse this year, and only a third expect improvement in 2022.

Republicans Lead 48%-39% on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 327 days away, and Republicans maintain a strong lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

Incumbency vs. Environment in 2022’s Gubernatorial Races Rating changes in four races by Kyle Kindik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

-- Amid a promising national environment for Republicans, we are changing ratings in 4 gubernatorial contests -- 3 of which are in the GOP’s favor.

-- The power of gubernatorial incumbency will be tested in 2022, both by a plethora of Republican primary challengers to sitting GOP governors and, for Democrats, by the national political climate in next year’s general election.

-- This election will feature a relatively high number of incumbents running for reelection compared to many previous midterm years (midterms are when the bulk of the gubernatorial elections are held).

-- Despite playing defense in many vulnerable races across the country, Democrats have the 2 clearest gubernatorial pickup opportunities.

Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot By Alan I. Abramowitz

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections.

— The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election.

— A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House.

2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline By J. Miles Coleman

Aside from Maryland, no statehouses are initially favored to flip -- but surprises are surely coming.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20.

— Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold. With a Leans Democratic rating, the Crystal Ball expects a Democrat to flip the seat.

— We’re starting the cycle off with five Toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not coincidentally, four of those gave President Biden very narrow margins last year.

— Democrats are clear favorites to retain governorships in three of the nation’s most populous states — California, Illinois, and New York — but they could be better-positioned in each.

— In the Senate, Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) retirement nudges that contest from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 27, 2021

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index - Week Ending February 18, 2021

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of February 14-18, 2021 fell to 86.0, down from 88.3 two weeks earlier. This is the lowest it’s been since the Immigration Index began in December 2019, and the second consecutive survey in which the index has reached a new record low. The Immigration Index has been under the baseline in eight consecutive surveys. Since the week before the November election, the index has fallen by nearly 15 points, indicating voters are looking for tighter immigration control from President Biden’s administration.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 20, 2021

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 13, 2021

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 6, 2021

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index - Week Ending February 4, 2021

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of January 31-February 4, 2021 fell to 88.3, down from 91.6 two weeks earlier. This is the lowest it’s been since the Immigration Index began in December 2019. This is the seventh consecutive survey in which the index has been under the baseline. Since the week before the November election, the index has fallen by more than 13 points, indicating voters are looking for tighter immigration control from the incoming Biden administration.

2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings By J. Miles Coleman

On a potentially limited playing field, both parties look to expand past their current 50 seats.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities — though a large gain for either party seems unlikely.

— Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third term, but even with his retirement, Ohio’s rightward lean makes it an uphill climb for Democrats.

— Democrats’ clearest path to gaining seats runs primarily though the Rust Belt, as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to be their top offensive races, though they may finally get lucky in North Carolina.

— We rate four states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — as Leans Democratic, and these seem to be the most obvious GOP targets.

— There will likely be more retirements this cycle, but they probably won’t change the fundamental picture.

Senate 2022: An Early Look By Kyle Kondik

Democrats may ultimately have a better shot to win the Senate than the House in two years, although winning either will be challenging.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats may have a better chance of winning the Senate in 2022 than holding the House, even if Democrats lose both Georgia special elections in January.

— The president’s party often struggles in midterms, which gives the GOP a generic advantage in the battle for Congress.

— The Republicans’ three most vulnerable Senate seats may all be open in 2022.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 29, 2020

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

Rasmussen Reports Weekly Immigration Index - Week Ending February 27, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of February 23-27, 2020 has risen to 101.6, from 99.7 the week before.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 22, 2020

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

Rasmussen Reports Weekly Immigration Index - Week Ending February 20, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of February 16-20, 2020 has fallen to 99.7, down from 102.4 the week before and a high of 105.8 the week prior to that.

Rasmussen Reports Weekly Immigration Index - Week Ending February 13, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of February 9-13, 2020 has fallen back to 102.4 from 105.8 the week before.