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Arizona Senate: Kari Lake Leads Democrat Gallego

Arizona Republican Kari Lake has a three-point lead over Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in this year’s U.S. Senate race, and Lake’s margin would be slightly wider if incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decides to seek reelection as an independent.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and The Bull Moose Project finds that, if the election were held today, 45% of Likely Arizona Voters would vote for Lake, while 42% would vote for Gallego. Four percent (4%) said they would not vote and another eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Elected as a Democrat in 2018, Sinema declared herself independent in 2022; she has not yet announced whether she will seek reelection this year. In a three-way race for the Senate seat, 37% of Likely Arizona Voters would vote for Lake, Gallego would get 33% and Sinema would place third at 21%. Two percent (2%) say they would not vote and another seven percent (7%) are undecided.

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The survey of 1,001 Arizona Likely Voters was conducted on February 21-26, 2023 by Rasmussen Reports and The Bull Moose Project. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The sample of Likely Arizona Voters included 469 Republicans and independents who are likely to vote in this year’s GOP primary, scheduled for March 19. Lake, a former TV journalist who narrowly lost the 2022 governor’s race in Arizona, enjoys a wide lead over her nearest primary rival for the Senate nomination. Lake would get 55% to Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb’s 26%. Another seven percent (7%) of likely GOP primary voters would choose some other candidate, while 12% are undecided.

Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Lake, and 51% of likely Republican primary voters say the endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lake. Twenty percent (20%) say Trump’s endorsement makes them less likely to vote for Lake and 28% say the endorsement doesn’t make much difference.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/Bull Moose Project survey of Arizona voters:

– In the presidential race, 47% would vote for Trump, while 40% would vote for President Joe Biden. Another eight percent (8%) say they’d vote for some other candidate.

– Voters identified border security (28%) and the economy (22%) as the top issues for this year’s election. Government corruption is considered the most important issue by 11%, followed by abortion (10%), education (8%), global conflicts and war (8%), climate change (6%) and crime (5%).

– Biden’s approval in Arizona is at 44%, including 26% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove, including 45% who Strongly Disapprove of Biden’s job performance.

– Fifty percent (50%) of Arizona voters view Trump favorably, including 31% with a Very Favorable impression. Forty-seven percent (47%) view Trump unfavorably, including 37% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former president. Eighty-one percent (85%) of Arizona GOP voters view Trump at least somewhat favorably, as do 15% of Democrats and 45% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

– Among Republican voters, 59% consider themselves primarily to be a Trump Republican, while 37% identify primarily as a traditional Republican.

– Among all Arizona likely voters, 75% agree with the statement, “The Republican Party is the party of Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again movement,” including 47% who Strongly Agree.

– Lake is viewed favorably by 47% of Arizona voters, including a majority (55%) of Hispanics. Gallego is viewed favorably by 43% of Arizona voters, including 37% of Hispanic voters.

– Arizona voters are overwhelmingly concerned about illegal immigration and, by a margin of more than 20 points, trust Republicans more on the issue. Sixty-seven percent (67%) believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays. Sixty-nine percent (69%) support the deportation of immigrants who have come to America illegally. Sixty-one percent (61%) support temporarily militarizing the southern border to relieve Border Patrol agents and stop the flow of illegal immigrants. Fifty-three percent (53%) trust Republicans more to handle border security, compared to 32% who trust Democrats more on the issue.

– Many Arizona voters are concerned about cheating in elections, with 45% saying it’s likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, and 48% who think it’s likely this year’s presidential election will also be affected by cheating. Forty-nine percent (49%) believe it’s likely that problems with voting in Maricopa County affected the 2022 midterm election results in Arizona.

A majority of American voters blame Russian President Vladimir Putin for opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s recent death in prison, but don’t think economic sanctions will have much effect on Putin’s regime. 

Nearly half of voters think it’s likely the Democratic Party will find another candidate to replace President Joe Biden this year, and a former first lady is a favorite pick for the candidate switcheroo.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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The survey of 1,001 Arizona Likely Voters was conducted on February 21-26, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports and The Bull Moose Project. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.

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