Election 2012: Presidential Election

Oklahoma Primary: Santorum 43%, Gingrich 22%, Romney 18%, Paul 7%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum holds a two-to-one lead over his closest GOP rival in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Oklahoma’s Republican primary race.

The latest statewide survey of Likely GOP Primary voters shows Santorum with 43% of the vote followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 22% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 18%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws seven percent (7%) support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Oklahoma survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan Primary: Santorum 38%, Romney 34%

The Michigan Republican Primary is just a week away, and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is holding on to a small lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney’s 34%. Well behind are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at nine percent (9%). Only one percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Up Big In California Against Romney, Santorum

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California,  as nearly six-out-of-ten voters approve of the way he's handling his job.

New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican nominee, Obama leads 57% to 35%.

If Santorum becomes the GOP standard bearer, the president leads 58% to 30%.

President Obama leads Romney by 23 points among unaffiliated voters and Santorum by 34 points among the same group.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This California survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Up Big In California Against Romney, Santorum

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California,  as nearly six-out-of-ten voters approve of the way he's handling his job.
 
New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican nominee, Obama leads 57% to 35%.
 
If Santorum becomes the GOP standard bearer, the president leads 58% to 30%.
 
President Obama leads Romney by 23 points among unaffiliated voters and Santorum by 34 points among the same group.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This California survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio GOP Primary: Santorum 42%, Romney 24%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continues to ride his polling momentum into Ohio where he leads Mitt Romney by nearly two-to-one in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Republicans in the state.

The new statewide telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Santorum picking up 42% of the vote to Romney’s 24%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 13% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico: Obama 55%, Santorum 37%

Despite the popularity of New Mexico’s new Republican governor and the closeness of its U.S. Senate race, President Obama far outdistances his two likeliest GOP challengers in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the presidential contest in the state. 

A new telephone survey of Likely New Mexico Voters finds the president earning 55% of the vote against both Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Santorum picks up 37% support. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Romney earns a similar 36% against the president, with five percent (5%) going for another candidate and five percent (5%) more undecided.

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most Ohio Voters View Social Security, Medicare Favorably

Ohio voters, compared to voters nationwide, have a more favorable opinion of Social Security but view Medicare about the same.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Ohio finds that 65% have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Social Security, including 31% who have a Very Favorable opinion of it.  Thirty percent (30%) have an unfavorable impression of the government retirement system, with eight percent (8%) who have a Very Unfavorable opinion of it.  (To see survey question working, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

50% Approve of Obama in Ohio, 44% Say Same of Kasich

Voters in the key battleground state of Ohio have decidedly mixed feelings about Republican Governor John Kasich and President Obama these days.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely Ohio Voters at least somewhat approve of the job Kasich is doing after his first year as governor, while 50% at least somewhat disapprove. But the emotion’s on the side of the governor’s opponents: The overall findings include 17% who Strongly Approve of his job performance versus 32% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here and here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Approve of Obama in Michigan

Most voters in Michigan now like the job President Obama is doing as president, but voters give mixed marks to their new governor, Republican Rick Snyder.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Michigan finds that 53% approve of the presidents’ job performance, while 45% disapprove. This includes 34% who Strongly Approve and an identical 34% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Michigan survey of 1,806 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most GOP Voters Still Think Romney Will Be The Nominee

Even before Rick Santorum’s trifecta on Tuesday, he was one of the most popular of the Republican presidential candidates, but he’s never remotely challenged Mitt Romney for the top slot when GOP voters are asked who is most likely to be their nominee. The test for Santorum in the days ahead is to see if he can convince voters otherwise.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, taken just before the voting on Tuesday, finds that 75% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide believe Romney will ultimately be the GOP presidential nominee. Just 11% expect former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to win, with three percent (3%) who predict Santorum will come out on top. Only one percent (1%) think Texas Congressman Ron Paul will be the party’s standard bearer. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In Arizona, Obama Approval at 41%

Many Democrats have high hopes for the Southwest in Election 2012 and some even think that President Obama even has a decent shot to move Arizona from Republican to Democrat in the Electoral College column this November. However, the president may have an uphill fight to achieve that goal as most voters in the Grand Canyon State disapprove of the way he’s done his job.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone poll found that just 41% of Likely Voters in Arizona approve of the way President Obama has performed his role. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove. Those figures are significantly lower than the president’s national ratings. They include 28% who Strongly Approve and 48% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Arizona survey of 1,230 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 38%, Gingrich 23%, Santorum 17%, Paul 14%

Mitt Romney, coming off his big win in the Florida Primary on Tuesday, is the clear front-runner in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Republican presidential race in his home state of Michigan. Voters in this hard hit state see Romney as the much better choice to manage the economy. The Michigan Republican Primary is on February 28.

Romney earns 38% support from Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second with 23% of the vote. Seventeen percent (17%) prefer former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, and nearly as many (14%) favor Texas Congressman Ron Paul. One percent (1%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

45% Say Too Many GOP Debates, Mostly Useless

A sizable number of voters think there have been too many Republican debates and that the debates have been mostly a waste of time. But still nearly seven-out-of-10 see debates as important to how they cast their vote.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters now believe there have been too many candidate debates in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Only nine percent (9%) feel there have not been enough debates, while 37% say the number's been about right. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 27-28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida GOP Primary: Romney 44%, Gingrich 28%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has opened a double-digit lead in Florida as the perception grows among Republican primary voters that he is the strongest general election candidate against President Obama. The state's GOP Primary is on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, conducted Saturday, shows Romney up by 16 points with 44% support. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a distant second at 28%.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

This Florida survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida GOP Primary: Romney 39%, Gingrich 31%, Santorum 12%, Paul 9%

Mitt Romney has jumped back ahead in the fevered Florida Republican Primary race with his support back to where it was before Newt Gingrich’s big win Saturday in South Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%). Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

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This Florida survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

33% of GOP Voters Say It Would Be Good If New Candidate Entered Presidential Race

While many pundits have taken to describing the race for the Republican nomination as a two-man competition, a third of all voters nationwide think it would be good for the GOP if someone else jumped into the fray.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 34% of Likely U.S. Voters think it would be good for Republicans if another candidate entered the race for the party’s presidential nomination. But nearly as many (31%) say it would be bad for the party, while 24% believe it would have no impact. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

68% of Republicans Think Gingrich As Ethical as Other Politicians

The charges have been flying fast and furious about Newt Gingrich’s marital and professional behavior and Mitt Romney’s business practices, but when it comes to ethics, voters always grade politicians on a curve.

Sixty-eight percent (68%)of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide believe Gingrich is at least as ethical as most politicians. Only 24% believe he is less ethical than his peers.

As for Romney, 82% of likely GOP primary voters regard him to be at least as ethical as most politicians, just 12% less so. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports Shifts Weekly Presidential Matchups to Daily

Rasmussen Reports is discontinuing its weekly matchups between President Obama and a generic Republican candidate now that the GOP race has narrowed to a few serious contenders. In its place, we are tracking the four named Republicans remaining in the race in regular matchups with the president.

Florida GOP Primary: Gingrich 41%, Romney 32%

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Florida survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Election 2012: Obama 48%, Santorum 38%

President Obama now holds a 10-point lead over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum in a hypothetical 2012 presidential election matchup.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama with 48% of the vote to Santorum’s 38%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.