Two weeks ago, Blunt led Carnahan by a 53% to 43% margin when leaners were included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.
The race continues to be rated Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Results before leaners are added find Blunt with a 50% to 41% edge over Carnahan, showing little change over the past two weeks. From September of 2009 through late August, support for Blunt ranged from 44% to 51% in results excluding leaners. Carnahan’s support ranged from 40% to 46% over the same period.
Blunt and Carnahan are running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Christopher "Kit" Bond.
While 75% of Blunt’s supporters are certain of their vote this November, 67% of Carnahan’s backers say the same.
Eighty-eight (88%) of Missouri Republicans back Blunt, while 86% of the state’s Democrats give their vote to Carnahan. Blunt leads Carnahan 59% to 33% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
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This survey of 750 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted on September 21, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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