Election 2004

Bush-Kerry Issues

Rasmussen Reports asked voters who they trusted more on a series of ten issues. The electorate is so polarized that neither candidate is preferred by 50% of voters on any issue.

Wisconsin: Bush 49% Kerry 47%

In Wisconsin, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 47%.

63% Say Taxes Will Stay the Same if Bush Wins

Most Americans (63%) believe their own taxes will remain pretty much the same if George W. Bush is re-elected this November. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 24% believe their taxes will go up with a Bush victory while 13% expect their taxes would decline.

Pennsylvania: Bush 49% Kerry 48%

In Pennsylvania, President George W. Bush now earns 49% of the vote while Senator John Kerry attracts 48%.

63% Say Taxes Will Stay the Same if Bush Wins

Most Americans (63%) believe their own taxes will remain pretty much the same if George W. Bush is re-elected this November.

54% Say US Elections Fair to Voters

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Likely Voters say that American elections are generally fair to voters. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 32% say they are not fair.

26% Say Election Will Be Too Close to Call

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters are expecting a repeat of Election 2000 this year--an election that is too close to call.

Differences Between Polls

We have been flooded with e-mails asking (in varying tones of politeness) why our poll results seem different from those released by Time and Newsweek.

Bush Up Five Points in Three Weeks

President Bush gained more than five percentage points over John Kerry during the past three weeks. About half the gains were made before the Republican National Convention and half during Convention week.

66% Say Bush Conservative, 46% Say Kerry Liberal

Sixty-six percent (66%) of America's Likely Voters believe that, in political terms, George W. Bush is a conservative.

52% Believe Bush Will Win in November

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Americans now believe that President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney will be re-elected this November. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that just 38% expect the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards to emerge victorious.

Bush-Kerry Favorables

As the Republican Convention is being held in New York, President Bush is viewed favorably by 54% of American voters and unfavorably by another 45%.

Maryland: Kerry 54% Bush 41%

In Maryland, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 54% of the vote and President Bush with 41%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry Maryland 57% to 40%.

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 45%

In Michigan, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 50% of the vote and President Bush with 45%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry Michigan by a 51% to 46% margin.

A month ago, Kerry was ahead by a similar 50% to 44% margin. Two months ago, Kerry had a two-point lead in Michigan, 46% to 44%. Three months ago, it was Kerry 47% Bush 41% in our Michigan poll.

Texas: Bush 57% Kerry 38%

In Texas, Bush now leads Massachusetts Senator John Kerry 57% to 38%. In our last survey, he was ahead 55% to 37%. Four years ago, Bush won his home state 59% to 38%.

South Carolina: Bush 52% Kerry 43%

In South Carolina, President Bush's lead is half what it was in our last survey. The latest Rasmussen Reports numbers show President Bush with 52% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 43%.

Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

In Pennsylvania, Senator John Kerry leads President George Bush 49% to 45% in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey.

Massachusetts: Kerry 58% Bush 36%

One the eve of the Republican National Convention, Massachusetts voters prefer their home state Senator over President Bush by a 58% to 36% margin.

Four years ago, without the home state advantage, Al Gore defeated Bush in Massachusetts 60% to 33%. Our last Bay State survey, released just prior to the Democratic National Convention, showed Kerry with a 60% to 31% lead.

New Jersey: Kerry 51% Bush 43%

New Jersey remains likely to cast its Electoral Votes for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards this November. However, the Democrats' lead in the state is a bit smaller now than it was a month ago.

New York: Kerry 56% Bush 37%

In New York, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 56% of the vote and President Bush with 37%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry New York by a 25 point margin.

In our last Empire State survey, Kerry held a 58%-30% lead. The state remains safely in the Kerry column for our Electoral College projection.