If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

June 3, 2025

Trump's Own Regulators Declare War on Coal and Its Investors By Stephen Moore

In one of the most convoluted lawsuits of all time, a cabal of state attorneys general and the Federal Trade Commission are now accusing financial firms BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard of monopolistic behavior. The complaint asserts that these firms bought coal stocks and then helped impose radical environmental restrictions on the companies they partially own so that coal output would fall and the price of coal would rise. The lawsuit alleges that this strategy generated "supra-competitive" profits for those investors.

May 30, 2025

Trump's Eyes Opened on Putin. Now What Will He Do? By Michael Barone

   "I'm not happy with what Putin is doing. He's killing a lot of people, and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin," said Donald Trump on Truth Social over the holiday weekend.

White letter R on blue background
May 29, 2025

The House: A Big Sort Lowers the Odds of a Big Wave By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Two of the three major ingredients that went into the huge numerical House gains that the winning side made in the 2010 and 2018 midterms are not present for Democrats in 2026.

— One of those, however, is that the opposition party started those cycles with far fewer seats than the Democrats hold now, which is hardly a bad thing for them. But that should also inform our expectations about the size of the gain Democrats could make in 2026 and how it would compare to midterm history.

— The other is that the House is much more sorted along partisan lines now than it was in either 2010 or even 2018, meaning that the party control of House seats is better aligned with how districts vote at the presidential level. This level of sorting also likely helps explain why Republicans in 2022 were able to flip the House, but only made modest gains in doing so—and also why Republicans can plausibly argue that they could hold onto the House next year.

— If the House remains so sorted along presidential voting lines, it stands to reason that large numerical swings in House seats would become rarer, even as the House majority itself would often be up for grabs.

May 28, 2025

Socialist Utopia By John Stossel

Bizarrely, 62% of young Americans hold a "favorable view" of socialism.

May 28, 2025

Trump and America are on the Right Track By Brian Joondeph

Rasmussen Reports, in one of its many daily and weekly polls, asks likely U.S. voters whether they believe the country is on the right or wrong track. Historically, this poll dates back to August 2007, nearly 20 years ago.

May 27, 2025

Trump, Harvard, and the Brain-Drain Myth By Daniel McCarthy

   Has Donald Trump declared war on Albert Einstein?

May 23, 2025

The Democrats: Leadership Discredited, Party Off Kilter By Michael Barone

How does a political party with overwhelming advantages, including increasing support from the growing bloc of highly educated and affluent voters, almost monopoly support from the press and broadcast media, and with burgeoning financial and high-tech sectors of the economy, manage to lose just about everything across the board?

White letter R on blue background
May 22, 2025

How the New Catalist Report on 2024 Compares to the Exit Polls By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

– A new report from the Democratic data firm Catalist provides a fresh look at the 2024 presidential election results.

– There are key differences among the two Election Night exit polls, from Edison Research and from VoteCast, and the Catalist report, but they by and large tell a similar story about the election.

– All three sources show Trump making big improvements compared to 2020 among young and nonwhite voters.

May 21, 2025

School Choice By John Stossel

Now that Texas and South Carolina have passed school choice bills, parents will be able to choose the best school for their kids in 17 states.

May 20, 2025

Biden Forgives Student Loans and ... Behold, Defaults Skyrocket By Stephen Moore

Here's an economics lesson that belongs in the textbooks.

May 20, 2025

China's Power Is a Virus By Daniel McCarthy

When a nation bears the blame for more than 7 million deaths worldwide, what is Washington going to do?

May 19, 2025

Biden’s Prostate Cancer – Malpractice or Coverup? By Brian Joondeph

On the heels of the release of audio of Special Counsel Robert Hur’s interview with Former President Joe Biden, this news has emerged. Biden has been diagnosed with an "aggressive" form of prostate cancer, “with metastasis to the bone."

May 16, 2025

On Education, Mississippi Shows the Way By Michael Barone

Mississippi leads the nation. That's not a typographical error. And it's not just a gotcha phrase, preparing the reader for learning that Mississippi leads the nation on all sorts of negative things.

White letter R on blue background
May 15, 2025

Notes on the State of Politics: Omaha Mayor, Past Voter Turnout in New Jersey and Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

Dear Readers: Today, we are leading off with some observations from Omaha’s recent mayoral election. The city makes up the better part of Nebraska’s 2nd District, a rare Kamala Harris-won but GOP-held district that is perpetually high on both parties’ House wish lists. Then, we will look at recent turnout patterns in New Jersey and Virginia, which will each host closely-watched gubernatorial contests in November.

The Editors

May 14, 2025

Tariff Folly By John Stossel

Last month, President Donald Trump proudly announced, "Liberation Day! ... The day American industry was reborn!"

May 13, 2025

How Glenn Youngkin's Miracle Became a Curse By Daniel McCarthy

Don't blame President Donald Trump for the setback Republicans are facing this November.

May 13, 2025

Cut Taxes on Made-in-America Products By Stephen Moore

As the late senator from Washington state, Warren Magnuson, who served for more than 30 years in Congress, once said, "All that each industry seeks is a fair advantage over its rivals." Wilt Chamberlain had a fair advantage on the basketball court because he stood 7-foot-1. It allowed him to score 100 points in a single game.

May 9, 2025

European Elites Destroy Democracy in Order to Save It By Michael Barone

If you are a graduate of Yale University, you can vote every spring for a member of the Yale Corporation, which selects the school's president. However, you can only participate if you vote for one of the two candidates nominated by the Alumni Fellow Nominating Committee, a group of university officials and graduates. There's no way to write in a name or, if you don't favor either candidate, to cast a blank ballot. You must vote for one of the insiders' choices or not vote at all.

White letter R on blue background
May 8, 2025

Notes on the State of the Senate: The Post-Kemp Battlefield By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans missed out on a top recruiting target earlier this week, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) decided not to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).

— Georgia remains a Toss-up in our ratings even as Ossoff’s reelection path got clearer.

— Another place where Democrats are playing defense, Michigan, remains a Toss-up, while a couple of other open Democratic seats in Democratic-leaning states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, are developing better for Democrats than Republicans.

— While there have already been many key developments in the race for the Senate in 2026, history shows that key candidate decisions may still be months away in some places.

— Republicans remain favored to retain control of the Senate in 2026, and we are not changing any ratings in this update.

May 7, 2025

Useless Government By John Stossel

I have a conflict.

I don't much like Linda McMahon, President Donald Trump's new Education Secretary. I sued her once.

She and her sleazy husband, Vince, owned a circus called World Wrestling Entertainment.

When I did a silly ABC news video on how the matches are staged, one of their 280-pound actors beat me up. A wrestler said Vince told him to do it.