Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            October 6, 2026Latin America's Many Trumps By Daniel McCarthy
  Latin America is turning right, and it's a vindication for President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            October 2, 2026Toward the Final Stretch -- and Beyond By Michael Barone
Haven't we seen this movie before? Voters, weary of a Republican president whose foreign or domestic policies don't seem to be delivering as promised, seem on the verge of a massive rejection of his party.
October 1, 2026Elections, Taxes, Transgender Policy, and More: The November Ballot Measures to Watch By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In November, 39 states will have at least one measure on the ballot for voters to consider, and many have multiple measures.
— The top issues this year will include elections and redistricting, along with taxes and transgender policy.
— Some issues that have been big in previous cycles will be relatively muted in November, notably abortion rights.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            September 30, 2026Always Watching By John Stossel
Do you worry that you're being watched?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            September 29, 2026MAID in America? By Daniel McCarthy
        Legalized homicide is now the cause of one out of every 20 Canadian deaths.
September 29, 2026Three Easy Ways to Reduce Pain at the Pump By Stephen Moore
        I've always argued that the easiest way for families to gauge the health of the economy is to check the daily gas price. Drivers see the 50-foot-high signs in every community in America. They stare us right in the face.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            September 25, 2026Toward a Post-Trump Politics  By Michael Barone
 From the clutter of midterm election poll results, it's possible sometimes to see new patterns of political support emerging.
September 23, 2026Un-Gifted and Talented By John Stossel
   Schools are ending gifted and talented programs. They will no longer separate kids by ability.
September 22, 2026Al Gore's Inconvenient Lies  By Stephen Moore
   It was 20 years ago that Al Gore's book "An Inconvenient Truth" was published, and ... well, it turns out that the truth was inconvenient -- for Al and his band of apocalyptics.
September 22, 2026The Immigration Politics of a Felon's Pardon By Daniel McCarthy
How far will New York Gov. Kathy Hochul go to keep immigrant criminals in this country?
September 22, 2026Rating Changes Toward Democrats Across the Board: MI-SEN to Leans D, Other Key Statewide Races to Toss-up By Kyle Kondik
Overall ratings summary:HOUSE: 211 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 21 Toss-ups. See ratings.
SENATE: 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups. See ratings.
GOVERNORS: 24 at least Leans D, 22 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups. See ratings.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— A persistently poor national environment for Republicans informs several rating changes this week toward Democrats.
— The highlights involve moving Michigan’s marquee Senate race to Leans Democratic and Iowa’s to Toss-up.
— Several Republican-held governorships, including in big states Florida, Ohio, and Texas, also become more vulnerable in our ratings, as do a few House races.
September 18, 2026Politics and Mental Health: Cause, Effect, or Coincidence? By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
Baby boomers grew up in a different mental-health culture. Anxiety, depression, and emotional struggles certainly existed, but they weren’t routine topics of conversation. The prevailing advice was often some variation of “suck it up and keep moving.”
September 18, 2026Both Parties Aiming to Lose the Off-Year Elections By Michael Barone
This election is a contest to see which party can do its best to lose. Looking forward from mid-September, President Donald Trump's Republicans seem to be well ahead at this. But the Resistance (or don't they call themselves that anymore?) Democrats are putting up a contest.
September 17, 2026Seven Weeks to Go: Polling Not Getting Better for Republicans; 8 House Rating Changes By Kyle Kondik
Overall ratings summary:
HOUSE: 210 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 22 Toss-ups. See ratings.
SENATE: 48 at least Leans R, 47 at least Leans D, 5 Toss-ups. See ratings.
GOVERNORS: 24 at least leaning to each party, 2 Toss-ups. See ratings.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— There’s been little improvement in the Republicans’ polling position as the end of summer looms, with Democrats hitting a new high for the cycle in generic ballot polling averages.
— Eight House rating changes in favor of Democrats push them a little closer to 218 in our ratings and the Republicans a little further away.
September 16, 2026Free AI By John Stossel
Cell phones made my life easier. So did the internet.
September 15, 2026The Marriage Deficit Is an Economic Catastrophe By Stephen Moore
I'm thrashing for explanations and solutions to this deeply troubling social trend. Obviously, we are not returning to the "Father Knows Best" norms of the 1950s or 1960s.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            September 11, 2026Hey, Germany. It's Legitimate to Limit Immigration. By Michael Barone
        Just weeks after far-left candidates have won surprising victories in Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Colorado and New York City for the Senate and House in the United States, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has won a widely predicted victory in the election last Sunday for the legislature of Sachsen-Anhalt, one of Germany's 16 federal states.
September 10, 2026The Six Regions That Will Decide the House By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The key districts in the battle for the House fit into a half-dozen regions scattered across the nation.
— What follows is a path toward what Democrats need to do (or Republicans need to prevent) in order to win a bare, 218-217 majority.
— Today’s update comes with a pair of rating changes in favor of Democrats; that does not include a pair of rating changes we are planning to make in Missouri if the state ultimately reverts to its 2022 map.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            September 9, 2026A Better Labor Day By John Stossel
   Did you celebrate labor last Monday, Labor Day?
September 9, 2026Secretary of State Races: Election Denialism Could Cost GOP Again in Swing State Races By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This year, 26 states will hold elections for secretary of state. Currently, the GOP holds 25 secretary of state offices to 22 for the Democrats. Three states do not have a secretary of state.
— Our analysis suggests that six secretary of state races this year are competitive, including two in the Toss-up category.
— During the last election cycle that had this many secretary of state races, 2022, election denialism was a major issue, and in several purple states it helped Democrats defeat Republican nominees aligned with Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud. With this installment, we have shifted two secretary of state races from Toss-up to Likely Democratic because Republicans nominated candidates associated with election denialism.