Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

April 16, 2026The Places We’re Watching as Virginia Votes on a Pro-Democratic House Map By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Next week, Virginians will decide whether or not to scrap their current House map, where Democrats have a 6-5 advantage, in favor of one where Democrats could win up to 10 seats.
— The state Supreme Court will consider the legality of the ballot measure after the vote is held next week; Republicans are hoping that, if the measure passes, it is invalidated by the court.
— While the result may not be the type of sweeping affirmation that Democrats got in last year’s elections, it would still be a surprise if the vote fails.
— Last year’s attorney general contest may provide a template for the results, with key localities such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Stafford County standing out as places the “no” side will want to carry in order to spring an upset.
— If the voters approve the map, we would rate 4 seats that are currently held by Republicans as at least Leans Democratic.
— Aside from the Virginia vote, where Democrats stand to gain, there are a couple of shoes left to drop in the 2026 mid-decade redistricting saga that could benefit Republicans.

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                            April 15, 2026Little Kids, Big Government By John Stossel
   Child care got expensive -- more than $13,000 per child, per year.  
April 15, 2026Presidential Downballot Losses: An Updated History and a Look Ahead to Trump’s Second Term By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Since World War II, presidents have consistently presided over losses for their party in downballot offices—in the Senate, the House, governorships, and state legislatures. This is an indication of “thermostatic” public opinion, in which a decisive fraction of the electorate becomes disenchanted with the party in power and punishes them in down-ballot contests.
— President Joe Biden lost ground in the Senate, the House, and in state legislative seats. But unusually among postwar presidents, Biden escaped losses in governorships and state legislative chamber majorities controlled. In addition, Biden’s losses in the other three downballot categories were more modest than the postwar average.
— Biden’s pattern of modest down-ballot losses echoes the record of Donald Trump during his first term—setbacks, but muted ones. One possible reason: Intensifying partisan polarization, which has made voters less likely than in the past to consider voting for the other party, effectively dampening the potential for large downballot pendulum swings against the president’s party.
— Trump hasn’t faced a midterm election in his second term yet, but he has already experienced one gubernatorial flip and many flipped state legislative seats.

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                            April 14, 2026Pope vs. President Is a Fight Everyone Loses By Daniel McCarthy
        President Trump and Pope Leo are in a war of words right now -- when they should be allies, not enemies.

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                            April 14, 2026Prices Controls Will Deny Millions of Americans Credit Cards By Stephen Moore
        There's a famous scene in the movie "The Graduate" in which a young Dustin Hoffman receives this one-word bit of career advice from a businessman: "plastics."

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                            April 8, 2026Show Me the Money -- The Trump Tax Cuts Benefit the Middle Class By Stephen Moore
        Democrats keep attacking President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 as a tax cut for the rich. But the data show that the average family gained roughly $2,000 on their lower tax bill for this year. Every Democrat in Congress voted no, even as they complain of a "middle-class affordability crisis." Maybe that's because to rich and famous limousine liberal Democrats, $2,000 is peanuts. But not for the rest of us.

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                            April 8, 2026Tax the Rich? By John Stossel
        "Tax the rich!" shout progressives.

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                            April 7, 2026Virginia: A New Extreme in Gerrymandering By Daniel McCarthy
   This year's midterm elections aren't just about who wins in November; they're about who wins fights over gerrymandering taking place right now.

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                            April 3, 2026The Sudden Political Star of Trump II: Marco Rubio By Michael Barone
"White House deploys Marco Rubio to clarify messaging about Iran conflict." So reads the headline on the front page of the Washington Examiner's website in the early hours of April 1, the third month of U.S. military operations against Iran, which have been taking place since Feb. 28.

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                            April 2, 2026Iran: From Imminent Threat to ‘No Threat at All’ By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
First, it was an imminent threat. Now it’s no threat at all.

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                            April 1, 2026You Don't Own Me By John Stossel
        Politicians tax what we earn, regulate what we build and often decide what we can do with our bodies and our money.

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                            March 31, 2026Let's Kill Cancer By Stephen Moore
        There are few things in life more terrifying than a cancer diagnosis, as any victim of this horrible disease will tell you.

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                            March 31, 2026When Birthright Citizenship Goes Wrong By Daniel McCarthy
        Get ready for the next Roe v. Wade -- only this time the Supreme Court decision that threatens to split the country isn't about abortion; it's about "birthright citizenship."

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                            March 27, 2026Where Is the Arc of Justice Headed? By Michael Barone
        Former President Barack Obama liked to quote the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s line that "the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." Of course, what was an expression of optimism for the moral reformer King was more in the nature of a victory spike of the football for a competitor in a zero-sum electoral contest like Obama.
March 26, 2026The House: 11 Rating Changes in Democratic-Held Seats; Non-Presidential Party Typically Doesn’t Lose Many of Their Own Seats in Midterms By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Because the presidential party usually loses ground in the House in midterms, it is also the case that they typically flip only a handful of seats from the non-presidential party in such elections.
— Still, Republicans have a decent chance to flip a larger-than-average number of Democratic-held seats in 2026, mainly because of redistricting.
— Beyond seats affected by redistricting, though, history and other factors suggest Republicans will have a hard time significantly cutting into Democratic districts unaffected by redistricting.
— We are moving 11 ratings this week, all in current Democratic-held districts and all in favor of Democrats.
— Democrats remain favored to win the House majority this year, although today’s changes do not impact the overall House math much.

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                            March 25, 2026The Economists Who Got It Right By John Stossel
   Politicians say they can "make the economy work better."

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                            March 24, 2026Republicans Can Win on Health Care Affordability By Stephen Moore
        For most of the last 40 years, pollsters have asked voters: Which party do you trust more on health care? The answer has been pretty much the same over this whole period. Voters trust Democrats more, sometimes by a two-to-one margin.

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                            March 24, 2026ICE Saves Lives -- and Air Travel By Daniel McCarthy
        Democrats who want to defund Immigration and Customs Enforcement aren't getting away with the political hostage-taking they're using to do it.

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                            March 20, 2026Uncertainty Remains, After 20 Days of War With Iran By Michael Barone
        Four years and 25 days. Twenty days. There's a huge difference between those two numbers. The first number -- 1,486 days altogether -- is the length of time since Russian troops crossed the Ukraine border on Feb. 22, 2022, and headed for Kyiv. The second number -- just 20 days -- is the number of days since U.S. and Israeli forces on Feb. 28 began bombing strategic targets in Iran.
March 19, 2026Six Gubernatorial Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans May Still Come Out Ahead By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are making six gubernatorial race rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats.
— The most notable ones come in Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio, while the others are blue state governorships in Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island moving to Safe Democratic.
— Despite these changes, Republicans may still be better-positioned to maintain an overall advantage in governorships held, and thus defy the usual trend of gubernatorial losses for the president’s party in midterms.