Will there be Democratic and Republican conventions this summer? The coronavirus pandemic, and the social distancing needed to combat it, are putting these quadrennial festivities in doubt -- an unprecedented situation that is leaving party officials, politicians, and the media in a quandary, with a fast-ticking clock.
But the Senate remains a bright spot for Republicans amidst decline elsewhere.
— After just three years in the White House, Donald Trump is seeing a significant erosion of down-ballot seats held by his party.
— This erosion puts Trump in good company — at least since World War II, presidents typically experience at least some erosion across his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats.
— The best news for Trump and Republicans is that they have held their own in the category of races that is arguably most politically important: the Senate.
There hasn't been another recent Senate primary challenge quite like it.
— Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) is facing a strong primary challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D, MA-4) in 2020. While challenges to entrenched incumbent senators aren’t an everyday occurrence, the Markey-Kennedy race is especially unusual in recent Senate history
— Most senators who attract primary challenges are weakened in some way — they face questions about their advanced age, their party loyalty, or a brush with scandal — or else face a challenge on ideological grounds. Yet none of these factors fit the Markey-Kennedy contest.
— Over the past three decades, even the top-performing primary challengers had a no better than one-in-nine chance of ending up in the Senate. Yet at this point, Kennedy — bucking history — seems like a modest favorite in the race.
Agriculture and manufacturing are significant industries in 2020’s most important states.
— Farmers and manufacturers account for a particularly large share of the economy in key battleground states, including ones that President Donald Trump won in 2016 and would need to win again in 2020 to secure a second term.
— However, the farm and factory sectors are facing economic strains from Trump’s trade policies. Agricultural output declined between 2017 and 2018 in all but one battleground state, and while manufacturing output increased in these states across the board between 2017 and 2018, it showed signs of slowing in most states during the first quarter of 2019.
— That said, anecdotal evidence suggests that cultural issues are outweighing economic factors, with these solidly Republican demographic groups sticking with the GOP, at least for now.
