Voters Approving Virginia Democratic Gerrymander Puts Democrats on Cusp of 218 House Seats in Ratings, but Questions Remain

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Virginia voters on Tuesday evening approved a new Democratic U.S. House gerrymander.

— As a result, we are moving four House ratings in favor of Democrats.

— The new Virginia map is not completely set, though, as the Supreme Court of Virginia could still revert to the old map if it finds that Virginia Democrats did not follow proper procedure in presenting this constitutional amendment to voters.

Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes

Rating the new Virginia map

Virginia voters approved a new Democratic gerrymander on Tuesday night in an unusually-scheduled constitutional amendment vote.

We are going to publish a second part of this analysis looking at how Virginians voted on this race, which readers can look out for in our next issue (it ended up being quite competitive, leading by a little under 3 points as of this writing on Tuesday evening). But in the immediate aftermath of the race being called by major news outlets, we are making four rating changes, all of which move currently Republican districts into Democratic-leaning categories.

Prior to the vote, our ratings had 213 districts Safe, Likely, or Leaning Democratic, 208 Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican, and 14 Toss-ups.

With these changes (described in more detail below), we now have 217 districts rated at least Leans Democratic, 205 at least Leans Republican, and 13 Toss-ups.

So Democrats are on the cusp of the magic number of 218 in our ratings. However, there are other dominoes that might fall on redistricting, most notably in Florida, where Republicans are meeting in a special legislative session next week and may try to squeeze additional seats out of that state.

But as we are writing right now, Democrats appear to have the upper hand in the overall redistricting battle, which now includes new maps in seven states: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and Utah.

Map 1 shows the new Virginia map.

Map 1: Voter-approved Democratic gerrymander of Virginia

The rating changes are as follows:

— VA-1 (Northern Virginia to Richmond outskirts) moves from Likely Republican to Likely Democratic. This is where first-term Rep. Eugene Vindman (D, VA-7) will be running, and it’s almost certainly too blue to be a real Republican target in the context of 2026. The new VA-7—the “lobster” district that is the most visually egregious part of the Democratic gerrymander—features a number of prominent Democrats running and retains a Likely Democratic rating.

— VA-2 (Hampton Roads) moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. This is still a competitive district, but a boost from what was effectively a tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024 to Harris +5 is enough to make Democrats favored here. As of now, this race looks like a rematch between Rep. Jen Kiggans (R, VA-2) and former Rep. Elaine Luria (D)—Kiggans unseated Luria in a competitive race in 2022.

— VA-5 (western Richmond) moves from Safe Republican to Likely Democratic. This is now Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor’s (D) race to lose. The new district includes Democratic parts of the western Richmond area and runs west through redder, and mostly rural, localities to approach the Lynchburg area.

— VA-6 (Roanoke/Charlottesville/Blacksburg/Harrisonburg) moves from Safe Republican to Leans Democratic. In terms of its partisan performance, this collection of blue towns and red rural areas is similar to the Northern Virginia-based VA-7 on the old map. Harris carried it by just a little over 3 points but it should be less competitive than that in the context of 2026. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D, VA-5), who served a single term in the House from 2009 to 2011, is the frontrunner to win the nomination, although author Beth Macy (D) is another credible Democratic candidate.

VA-3 (Norfolk), VA-4 (Richmond/Southside), VA-8 (Alexandria to the Peninsula), VA-10 (Loudoun County), and VA-11 (Northern Virginia to the West Virginia border) all retain Safe Democratic ratings. VA-9 (western Virginia) retains a Safe Republican rating.

Beyond Kiggans in VA-2, it’s not clear what the other Republican incumbents—Reps. Rob Wittman (R, VA-1), John McGuire (R, VA-5), and Ben Cline (R, VA-6)—will do if this is the map that is used this fall. We would list them as underdogs wherever they might run.

We say “if” this map is used because there is still some legal uncertainty. There is still legal action concerning whether Democrats in the state legislature followed the proper procedure in presenting this constitutional amendment to voters—the Supreme Court of Virginia allowed the referendum to proceed, but the legal fight is not yet decided. So it is possible that the map could still end up being reversed, although doing so after the voters decided it for themselves would be a political bombshell, whatever the legal realities. Michael Martz of the Richmond Times-Dispatch recently wrote a good explainer of the legal fight.

There is also a political dimension to the court proceedings. In Virginia, the seven members of the state Supreme Court are appointed to 12-year terms by a majority vote of each chamber of the state legislature. Two of the current justices, D. Arthur Kelsey and Stephen R. McCullough, are approaching the end of their terms: Kelsey’s expires in early 2027, and McCullough’s in 2028. Both were last appointed back in the mid-2010s, when Republicans controlled both chambers of the state legislature. It may be that the now-Democratic legislature would not reappoint these justices anyway (if they want reappointment), but one could especially imagine them having a hard time getting reappointed if they ruled against the gerrymandering referendum.

If the court does rule against the new Virginia map and reverts to the old one, we will unwind these changes. In that event, VA-2 would still represent a prime Democratic offensive target, and Wittman’s VA-1 would probably still be on the board too (we had it rated as Likely Republican, but we could imagine it being Leans Republican or even Toss-up depending on the political environment). So the new Virginia map didn’t really change the race for the House—Democrats were favored before it, and they are favored after it—but it does make the Democrats’ path to the majority easier.

Kyle Kondik is a Political Analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and the Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.

See Other Political Commentary by Kyle Kondik.

See Other Political Commentary.

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.