How Did the Polls Perform? Winners and Losers
A Commentary By Brian C. Joondeph
Election 2024 is in the rearview mirror. Pollsters won’t be bombarding voters with phone or email polls. Today’s entertainment is liberal heads exploding on social media or the latest Democrat threatening but not actually following through on everything from drinking cyanide to setting themselves on fire or leaving the country if Donald Trump won the election.
Trump did win, bigly, in a landslide of sorts. He won the Electoral College handily, 312 to 226. Trump also won the popular vote, 50.3% to 48.1%. As a divided country, the popular vote will always be close. In his 49-state Electoral College landslides, Ronald Reagan only garnered 54-55% of the popular vote in 1980 and 1984.
Opinion polls are a campaign season staple. Engaged voters watch the polls like day traders watch the stock market. The daily mood of a large portion of the electorate hinges on where their favored candidate ranks in the latest opinion poll and how their popularity is trending.
The ultimate poll was conducted on November 5, election day. In that poll, in the actual election, Trump received 50.3% and Harris 48.1%, or Trump +2.2 %. How accurate were the polls? Which are the winners, and which lost big time?
Real Clear Politics gave Trump a slightly smaller final win of +2.1, but how did this number compare to the final polls before the election?
Fox News and CNBC were the closest, finding Trump +2 in their final polls. They deserve limited applause; however, since their last polling dates were October 11-14 and October 15-19, respectively, several weeks before the election.They missed several important events that may have moved votes.
Trump worked at McDonald's on October 20. Trump’s Joe Rogan interview was posted on October 26. Trump’s garbage truck ride was on October 30. These three sensational news events undoubtedly affected voting.
There were two big winners. In their final pre-election national poll, published on November 1, Rasmussen Reports gave Trump a 3-point lead. AtlasIntel showed Trump +1.8 in their final poll of November 1-2. They both straddled Trump’s final margin of +2.2. These timely polls, shortly before the election, were spot on.
As there are winners and losers, who lost in the polling?
The RealClearPolitics average predicted Harris +0.1 in the popular vote. Rather than sharing the blame among all the pollsters, which polls skewed the average toward Harris?
The final Ipsos poll results were Harris +2, NPR/PBS/Marist had Harris +4, Forbes/HarrisX had Harris +2, Yahoo News had Harris +1, and Morning Consult had Harris +2. Tied results came from TIPP, the New York Post, NBC News, and Emerson.
Polling at the state level was also wildly off the mark. In New Jersey, two polls, Rutgers-Eagleton and Cygnal predicted Harris +20 and +12, respectively. The final margin was far less, Harris +5.
Kansas polling was also wildly wrong. The Fort Hays State University poll showed Trump +5, with the final result being Trump +17.
These polls all underestimated Trump’s popularity and ultimate election.
The biggest loser was the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. On November 2, pollster Ann Selzer claimed, “Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.” Trump was +4 in September, and on the eve of the election, Harris was +3, a 7-point swing. When the votes were tallied, Trump won Iowa by over 13 points. The difference between the pre-election poll and reality was 16 points. This was more than a swing and a miss; it was showing up in the wrong city for the game.
Why are some pollsters spot on and others way off the mark?
One reason for inaccurate results is polling methodology, specifically oversampling Democrats. This can produce more Democratic-favorable but inaccurate results. Extrapolating a survey sample of a few thousand to 150 million voters requires a representative sample of the electorate.
Polling results may influence voter turnout, the all-important metric for determining winners and losers. In other words, why are the polls conducted? Are they intended to reflect or influence popular opinion?
Depending on the polling results, if one’s candidate is behind, voting may seem like a lost cause. Conversely, if one’s candidate is ahead, voting may seem unnecessary.
All professions, from surgeons to financial advisors, have a wide range of outcomes. Pollsters are no exception. Kudos to Rasmussen Reports and AtlasIntel, the two most accurate pollsters for Election 2024. These are the polls to pay attention to in upcoming elections.
Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer.
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