Election 2024: Trump +3 Over Harris in Final Poll
Former President Donald Trump has a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in our final national poll of the 2024 presidential election.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump and 46% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The final poll, compiling more than three weeks of survey data, has Trump one point higher than Wednesday, when he led by two points – 48% to Harris’s 46% – in our last daily tracking poll.
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The survey of 12,546 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-29, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 30% of black voters, 49% of Hispanics and 47% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 44% of whites, 63% of black voters, and 44% of Hispanics and other minorities would vote for Harris.
The “gender gap” yields a net 11-point difference, as Trump leads by eight points among men, 51% to 43%, while Harris has a three-point lead with women voters, 49% to 46%.
Among voters who say America is going in the right direction, 82% choose Harris, while among those who say the country is on the wrong track, 72% pick Trump.
Trump leads Harris in the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina.
President Joe Biden earned a monthly job approval of 44% in October, unchanged from September. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapproved of his job performance in October, also unchanged from September.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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The survey of 12,546 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-29, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
The survey of 12,546 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-29, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
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