Election 2024: Trump Leads in Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina

Four days before Election Day, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely Pennsylvania voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are still undecided. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat Trump by a slender margin in Pennsylvania. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Trump has an identical two-point lead in Nevada – 49% to Harris’s 47% – with one percent (1%) for some other candidate and three percent (3%) undecided. In North Carolina, the only one of this year’s seven “battleground” states that Trump won in 2020, Trump now has a three-point lead, with 50% to Harris’s 47%. 

One percent (1%) of North Carolina voters would vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

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The survey of 849 Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted on October 25-28, and the surveys of 767 Nevada Likely Voters and 751 North Carolina Likely Voters were conducted on October 25-30, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters in all three states rank the three most important issues in the same order, with the economy at the top of the list (ranked first by 30% in Pennsylvania, 34% in Nevada and 33% in North Carolina), followed by border security (21% in Pennsylvania, 22% in Nevada and 19% in North Carolina) and abortion (16% in Pennsylvania and Nevada, 14% in North Carolina).

“As has been the case in almost all states we’ve polled, LVs [likely voters] in North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are very unhappy with the status quo and worried for their children,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “When asked if they’re better off than they were four years ago, 57% of LVs in each state polled said that they are not. Nor are they optimistic about their children, with all LVs believing that their children will do less well than their parents.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina voters:

– Pennsylvania’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race is now tied, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and his Republican challenger David McCormick each getting 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) of Pennsylvania voters would choose some other Senate candidate and five percent (5%) are still undecided. In the previous survey, Casey led by two points, with 47% to McCormick’s 45%.

– In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has a nine-point lead – 50% to 41% – over Republican challenger Sam Brown, although six percent (6%) say they’re still undecided about the Senate contest. The previous survey had Brown within three points of Rosen.

– In North Carolina, Democrats appear likely to continue their hold on the governor’s mansion. In the election to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, Democrat Josh Stein has 49% to Republican Mark Robinson’s 40%, with five percent (5%) saying they’ll vote for some other candidate and six percent (6%) undecided.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have a two-point lead (49% to 47%) over Democrats in Pennsylvania on the so-called “generic ballot” question, and lead by three points in North Carolina (49% to 46%). In Nevada, Democrats lead by two points (48% to 46%) on the congressional ballot.

– The “gender gap” for the presidential election is a net 17 points in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads among men by 11 points (54% to Harris’s 43%) and Harris leads with women voters by six points (51% to Trump’s 45%). The gender gap is 15 points in North Carolina, with very similar breakdowns. In Nevada, the gender gap is 24 points, with Trump leading by 14 points among men (55% to Harris’s 41%) while Harris leads by 10 points with women (53% to Trump’s 43%).

– In Pennsylvania, 55% of whites, 17% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 43% of whites, 79% of black voters and 52% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Nevada, 52% of whites, 30% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics and 56% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 45% of whites, 64% of black voters, 51% of Hispanics and 31% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In North Carolina, 63% of whites, 16% of black voters, 43% of Hispanics and 35% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 35% of whites, 76% of black voters, 53% of Hispanics and 65% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

Trump leads in the battleground states of Georgia and Arizona, while Harris remains ahead in New Mexico.

Nearly half of voters suspect election officials of involvement in cheating, and think such acts deserve criminal punishment.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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