Election 2024: Trump Leads in Georgia, Arizona; Harris +5 in New Mexico

With Election Day looming, former President Donald Trump leads in the battleground states of Georgia and Arizona, while Vice President Kamala Harris remains ahead in New Mexico.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 51% of Likely Georgia voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are still undecided. In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly beat Trump in Georgia. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Trump has a two-point lead in Arizona, where he gets 48% to Harris’s 46%, with three percent (3%) for some other candidate and five percent (5%) undecided. Meanwhile in New Mexico, which Biden won by a double-digit margin in 2020, Harris now leads by five points, with 49% to Trump’s 44%. Four percent (4%) of New Mexico voters would vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

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The survey of 749 New Mexico Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-26, the survey of 910 Georgia Likely Voters was conducted on October 25-28, and the survey of 803 Arizona Likely Voters was conducted on October 25-29, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters in all three states rank the three most important issues in the same order, with the economy at the top of the list (ranked first by 39% in 

Georgia, 33% in Arizona and 27% in New Mexico), followed by border security (23% in Arizona, 21% in Georgia and18% in New Mexico) and abortion (16% in both Arizona and New Mexico, 13% in Georgia).

“Regarding whether the flow of illegal aliens over the southern border constitutes an ‘invasion,’ majorities in all three states agreed that the description is accurate (62% in Georgia, 57% in Arizona, and 52% in New Mexico),” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “In each state, majorities either strongly or somewhat support using the United States military or National Guard to stop the influx of illegal aliens (66% in Georgia, 60% in Arizona, and 55% in New Mexico). In all three states, the greatest number of respondents hold Biden to blame for illegal immigration (28% in Georgia, 30% in Arizona, and 28% in New Mexico).”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Georgia, Arizona and New Mexico voters:

– Democrats lead in the U.S. Senate contests in Arizona and New Mexico. Democrat Ruben Gallego has a four-point lead in Arizona, with 48% to 44% for Republican Kari Lake; four percent (4%) of Arizona voters prefer some other Senate candidate and five percent (5%) are undecided. In New Mexico, incumbent Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich has a nine-point lead, with 50% to 41% for Republican challenger Nella Domenici.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have a four-point lead (48% to 44%) over Democrats in Arizona on the so-called “generic ballot” question, while the GOP’s lead in Georgia is just one point (47% to 46%). In New Mexico, Democrats lead by five points (49% to 44%).

– The “gender gap” for the presidential election is a net eight points in Arizona, where Trump leads among men by six points (50% to Harris’s 44%) and Harris leads with women voters by two points (49% to Trump’s 47%). In Georgia, the gender gap is 19 points, as Trump leads by 16 points (56% to Harris’s 40%) with men, and Harris has a three-point lead among women voters (49% to Trump’s 46%). In New Mexico, the gender gap is a whopping 30 points, with Trump leading by 10 points among men (51% to Harris’s 41%) while Harris leads by 20 points with women (57% to Trump’s 37%).

– In Arizona, 53% of whites, 22% of black voters, 38% of Hispanics and 60% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 43% of whites, 66% of black voters, 58% of Hispanics and 30% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Georgia, 66% of whites, 18% of black voters and 52% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 31% of whites, 75% of black voters, and 46% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In New Mexico, 47% of whites, 59% of black voters, 53% of Hispanics and 46% of other minorities would vote for Harris, while 46% of whites, 41% of black voters, 40% of Hispanics and 50% of other minorities would vote for Trump.

Harris has a three-point lead over Trump in Minnesota, but the presidential contest is nearly tied in New Hampshire.

Voters overwhelmingly think this year’s presidential election is important, and most will be angry if their candidate doesn’t win.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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