Election 2024: Harris 48%, Trump 46% in Virginia; Cruz +4 in Texas

The presidential race is unusually close in Virginia, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz leads in his bid for a third term.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely Virginia voters would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, while 46% would vote for former President Donald Trump. Four percent (four%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) are still undecided. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat Trump by a 10-point margin in Virginia. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Meanwhile, in Texas, Cruz faces a strong challenge from Democrat Rep. Colin Allred. If the election were held today, 47% of Likely Texas voters would vote for Cruz, while 43% would vote for Allred. Three percent (3%) would vote for some other Senate candidate and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

(Not getting our eNewsletter? Sign up HERE. Already signed up? Try adding updates@rasmussenreports.com to your contacts or whitelisting us. Still having trouble – email subscriptions@rasmussenreports.com. If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,002 Texas Likely Voters and 1,014 Virginia Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-25, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Both Trump and Harris have recently made campaign appearances in Texas. However, Trump leads by six points in the Lone Star State, with 50% to Harris’s 44% among likely voters.

In the Virginia Senate race, meanwhile, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao by a double-digit margin, with 50% of likely voters for Kaine and 39% for Cao.

In both Texas and Virginia, “voters are unhappy with the status quo and are worried about election integrity,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “In Texas, 56% of voters say they are not better off now than they were four years ago, while 51% of Virginia voters say the same. This grim feeling affects their feelings about the future. In both states, 50% of likely voters think their children will be worse off than their parents.”

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Virginia voters and 30% in Texas say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, followed by border security (24% in Texas, 19% in Virginia) and abortion (13% in Texas, 12% in Virginia).

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Texas and Virginia voters:

– The “gender gap” is much more significant for the presidential election in Virginia than in Texas. Trump leads among both men (52% to Harris’s 42% for Harris and women voters (49% to Harris’s 47%) in Texas. In Virginia, however, Trump leads among men by a four-point margin (50% to Harris’s 46%), while Harris has an eight-point advantage among women voters, with 51% to Trump’s 43%.

– In Texas, 59% of whites, 23% of black voters, 43% of Hispanics and 31% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 36% of whites, 72% of black voters, 52% of Hispanics and 69% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Virginia, 44% of whites, 64% of black voters, 46% of Hispanics and 59% of other minorities would vote for Harris, while 51% of whites, 32% of black voters, 50% of Hispanics and 30% of other minorities would vote for Trump.

– Voters in Texas are significantly more likely than those in Virginia to consider border security a top priority for the next president. Asked which issue is most important for the next president to solve, 36% of Texans said illegal immigration, followed by rising prices (22%) protecting our democracy (21%) and abortion rights (18%). In Virginia, 30% of voters said rising prices were most important, followed by illegal immigration (27%), protecting our democracy (23%) and abortion rights (19%).

– Majorities of voters in both Texas (65%) and Virginia (59%) support using the armed forces or National Guard to stop the flow of illegal immigration at the US southern border.

Transgender athletes in women’s sports? Men using women’s restrooms? Taxpayer-funded transgender treatment? American voters are against all of it – and not by a narrow margin.

An overwhelming majority of self-identified Christian voters believe the 2024 election is very important, and most of them believe that prayer can make a difference in the outcome.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.