Trump in 2020?
Thursday, March 01, 2018
If the presidential election were held today, President Trump would carry Republicans and unaffiliated voters, but Democrats would reject him in droves. Joe Biden remains the early favorite in a crowded Democratic field to challenge Trump’s reelection.
The president on Tuesday announced his intention to seek reelection, and 44% of all Likely U.S. Voters say they would be more likely to vote for him if they had to vote now. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that slightly more (47%) are more likely to opt for the Democratic nominee who opposes him, while nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats would support their party’s nominee. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party by a 45% to 38% margin would choose Trump instead. Fifteen percent (15%) of Democrats and 20% of GOP voters would vote for the other party’s candidate.
When asked which Democrat has the best chance of defeating Trump in 2020 from a list of seven early contenders, 37% of Democrats choose former Vice President Biden, with failed 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton a distant second with 14% support.
Among all voters, 25% prefer Biden, while 12% say Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Nine percent (9%) choose Clinton. Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are each the choice of four percent (4%) of voters. Two percent (2%) like former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe. But 25% support someone else, and 17% are undecided.
The list was slightly different in November, but the levels of support for the various candidates haven’t changed markedly.
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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 27-28, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Nearly half of Democrats said in late December that there’s a good chance Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term in the White House, but two-out-of-three Republicans see four more years in his future.
Trump runs even among men against an unnamed Democratic opponent, while women give the challenger a six-point advantage. Trump trails by double digits among those under 40, but it’s a break-even race among their elders.
Blacks overwhelmingly prefer the Democratic challenger, while Trump leads by seven points among whites. Other minority voters choose the Democrat 50% to 41%.
Younger voters are the least enthusiastic about Biden and opt nearly as much for Clinton and Sanders. But this far out from the election, it’s not surprising that sizable numbers of voters of all ages are undecided or looking for someone else.
Among voters who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing, 96% are ready to vote for his reelection. But 99% of those who Strongly Disapprove of his job performance would choose the Democrat if the election were held today.
Trump’s daily job approval rating has climbed to a high of 50% since his State of the Union address in late January. This is several points better than Barack Obama’s numbers at this point in his presidency.
Confidence in the economy remains at record highs. Belief that the country is heading in the right direction also is higher than it was during the Obama years but is still well short of 50%.
For Democrats, the possible Trump-Russia connection remains the burning issue of the day.
For the rest of voters, pocketbook issues and illegal immigration are priorities.
Voters concede that opposition to Trump’s agenda is politically motivated, but even after his conciliatory State of the Union speech, only just over half (51%) say it is better for the country if Congress works with the president most of the time.
But Democrats aren't overly confident that their legislators in Congress will be able to stop Trump’s agenda. Only 10% of Democrats believe efforts by national Democrats to oppose the president have been a success so far.
Love him or hate him, voters on both sides of the political aisle agree Trump is charting the course for the country, and no one else is even close.
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