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Warren vs. Trump, and the Winner Is …

Friday, October 19, 2018

Despite Senator Elizabeth Warren’s bungled attempt this week to prove her claims of Native American heritage, the Massachusetts Democrat edges President Trump in a hypothetical 2020 presidential election matchup.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Warren, while 44% would vote for Trump’s reelection. Nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

By comparison, a survey in January found TV personality Oprah Winfrey beating Trump 48% to 38% in a hypothetical 2020 matchup.

Warren earns 75% support from Democratic voters, nine percent (9%) from Republicans and leads 53% to 36% among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Trump picks up 82% of GOP voters and 16% of Democrats.

Just 41% of all voters have a favorable opinion of Warren, however, with 20% who share a Very Favorable one. Forty-five percent (45%) view her unfavorably, including 32% with a Very Unfavorable view. Fourteen percent (14%) don’t know enough about Warren to venture even a soft opinion.

The president earns 47% approval among likely voters in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, down from a high of 51% at the beginning of the week.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 17-18, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just 14% of Democrats – and 11% of all voters – think Warren would be the best Democratic candidate to run against Trump in 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the first choice.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Warren, compared to 19% of Republicans and 41% of unaffiliated voters.

Men and women have similar views of Warren, but women prefer her over Trump in a 2020 matchup. Men choose Trump instead.

The older the voter, the less they like Warren and the more likely they are to vote for the president.

Blacks overwhelmingly choose the Democrat. Whites prefer the GOP incumbent, while other minority voters are evenly divided.

Ninety-eight percent (98%) of voters who Strongly Approve of Trump’s job performance choose him over Warren. Among those who Strongly Disapprove of the job the president is doing, 90% opt for Warren.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of all voters think Trump will be reelected in 2020, while 30% believe he will be defeated by the Democratic nominee. Only 21% now believe he will be impeached before serving his first full term.

While the better-known candidates continue to lead the pack, three-out-of-four Democrats think their party needs to turn to someone new for the 2020 race.

Thirty percent (30%) of Democrats favored a Warren presidential bid in 2016.

In late June 2016 before Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton had announced her vice presidential running mate, 28% of Democrats - and 17% of all voters - said they would be more likely to vote for her if Warren was her choice.

Only 40% of voters believe America would be better off today if Clinton had been elected president instead of Trump.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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