Wednesday, January 10, 2018
TV personality Oprah Winfrey is the likely winner over President Trump if the 2020 election were held today, but there are a lot of undecideds.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would opt for Winfrey, while 38% would choose Trump. But a sizable 14% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Winfrey has the support of 76% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans and 44% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. The president earns 66% of the vote from Republicans, 12% of Democrats and 38% of unaffiliateds.
Twelve percent (12%) of both Republicans and Democrats are undecided given this matchup. One-in-five unaffiliated voters (19%) aren’t sure which candidate they would support.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of all voters view Winfrey favorably, including 27% with a Very Favorable view of the longtime media personality and entrepreneur. That’s little changed from 2011 after Winfrey announced she was ending her TV talk show after 25 years on the air. Thirty-four percent (34%) share an unfavorable view of her, with 18% who have a Very Unfavorable one.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 8-9, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Two-out-of-three Republicans think Trump will be elected to a second term. Among Democrats, 42% predict he will be defeated by their nominee in 2020, but a plurality (45%) thinks he is more likely to be impeached.
Women share a more favorable opinion of Winfrey than men do. Fifty-two percent (52%) of women prefer the TV host in a matchup with Trump, compared to 43% of men.
Those under 40 are far more likely to choose Winfrey over Trump as the nation’s next president than their elders are.
Winfrey leads among whites, blacks and other minority voters but has her widest victory margin among the black community.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of self-identified conservative voters choose Trump in a matchup with Winfrey. But she leads with 58% support among moderates and 80% of the liberal vote.
Love him or hate him, voters agree Trump is charting the course for the country, and no one else is even close.
Most Democrats think the key to success moving forward is to stonewall Trump, but few Democrats think that strategy has paid off thus far.
Democrats hungry for a challenger with the firepower to match Trump’s in 2020 seized on Winfrey following her impassioned speech about sexual harassment at Sunday night’s Golden Globes ceremony. In mid-November, long before the Oprah boomlet began, former Vice President Joe Biden was the first choice for Democrats in 2020, with Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont a distant second.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of all Americans said in 2011 that Winfrey has been influential in shaping people’s opinions of products and people, with 35% who said she has been Very Influential.
In early December 2016, still reeling from Hillary Clinton’s upset loss to Trump the month before, 72% of Democrats said their party should look for a fresh face to be their nominee.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
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