Monday, January 24, 2011
History tells us that primary races are all about name recognition at this early stage, and right now, not surprisingly the best-known Republican hopefuls are running ahead among likely party primary voters.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads the pack with the support of 24% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the party’s nominee for vice president in 2008, runs second with 19%, closely followed by Mike Huckabee with 17%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas who now hosts a program on the Fox News network, and Romney were both unsuccessful contenders for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008. The new findings are no surprise since the top three vote-getters have been running closely in surveys for months. None of the seven prominent Republicans we asked primary voters about has officially declared that they are running for the party’s presidential nomination.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in fourth with 11% support. Tim Pawlenty, who recently stepped down as governor of Minnesota, earns six percent (6%) of the primary vote, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at four percent (4%) and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels with three percent (3%). Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and 10% are undecided given this list.
“People shouldn’t assume that the party’s eventual nominee will come from among the early frontrunners,” Scott Rasmussen notes. “Lots of candidates, like lots of baseball teams, look good on paper, but you don’t win the nomination on paper. You win by going to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and convincing small groups of people in living rooms to follow you.”
The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.Rasmussen subscribers can log in to read the rest of this article.
ORBecome a member and get full access to all articles and polls starting at $3.95/month.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $3.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.