Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by eight points in an early look at New Hampshire’s 2010 race for the U.S. Senate.

The first Rasmussen Reports survey of the race to fill the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Judd Gregg shows Ayotte ahead 46% to 38%.

Five percent (5%) of New Hampshire voters prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.
Ayotte, the state’s attorney general from 2004 until her resignation in July, captures 81% of the Republican vote, and Hodes, a two-term member of the U.S. House, earns the identical number (81%) of Democratic votes. Among voters not affiliated with either party, Ayotte leads by 14 points.

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Voters in New Hampshire are closely divided over the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats: 47% favor it, while 50% are opposed. But the antis feel more strongly, with 42% strongly opposed versus 30% who are strongly in favor of the legislation.

For Hodes in particular, the health care plan could prove critical to his Senate hopes. If a plan makes it to the floor of the House, he will have to vote on it, and Ayotte is sure to make that vote a major campaign issue.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of the state’s voters now have a very favorable opinion of Ayotte, while six percent (6%) view her very unfavorably. Hodes is seen very favorably by 19% and very unfavorably by 23%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Both Senate candidates have to work on their name recognition statewide. Despite holding a state office for five years, Ayottte is not well enough known to 22% of the state’s voters for them to have even a soft opinion of her one way or the other. Sixteen percent (16%) don’t known enough about Hodes to express any kind of opinion.

Just four percent (4%) of New Hampshire voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Forty-seven percent (47%) say it’s poor. Thirty-four percent (34%) say the economy is getting better, but 40% believe it’s getting worse.

Still, 51% fear the federal government will do too much in reacting to the country’s economic problems, while 39% fear it won’t do enough.

Seventy-two percent (72%) also say it’s likely that taxes on the middle class will increase to cover the cost of the president’s health care plan.

Sixty-four percent (64%) say the plan will increase the deficit, while just seven percent (7%) say it will make the deficit go down.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) believe the quality of health care will get better if the president’s plan passes, but 43% say it will get worse.

Forty-seven percent (47%) say the cost of health care will go up, while 26% say it will go down.
Both the quality and cost findings in New Hampshire are slightly more supportive of the plan than voters are nationally.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying other potential 2010 Senate match-ups and already has recently released findings from Colorado, Connecticut and Nevada.

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