While other Republicans are nosing into the race, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte remains the GOP hopeful with the best chance of beating likely Democratic candidate Paul Hodes in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate contest this year.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Ayotte beating Hodes by nine points – 49% to 40%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Ayotte, the state’s attorney general from 2004 until her resignation last July, led Hodes, a two-term member of the U.S. House of Representatives, by eight points – 46% to 38% - in September.
The Republican now has a six-point edge among voters not affiliated with either party – 44% to 38%.

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For Hodes, his vote in the House on the national health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats may prove critical. Forty-six percent (46%) of New Hampshire voters favor the plan, while 52% oppose it. This is slightly higher support than is found nationally, but those who Strongly Oppose the plan outnumber those who Strongly Favor it by two-to-one – 44% to 22%.

Ayotte captures 89% of those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan, while Hodes has 86% of the votes of the smaller group that Strongly Favors it.

Among all likely voters, two other GOP hopefuls - Ovide Lamontagne, an attorney who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1996, and businessman Bill Binnie – both lose to Hodes in one-on-one match-ups.

In this survey Hodes beats Lamontagne by seven points, 45% to 38%. Six percent (6%) favor another candidate in that contest, and 11% are not sure. The Democrat defeats Binnie by six points – 43% to 37% - with five percent (5%) looking to another candidate and 15% undecided.

The survey was taken Tuesday night. Binnie on Monday launched a major media advertising effort on Monday to introduce himself to New Hampshire voters.

Republicans will pick their gubernatorial nominee in a September 14 primary. Hodes faces no major opposition for his party’s nomination at this point.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of New Hampshire voters have a very favorable opinion of Hodes, while 25% view him very unfavorably. Ayotte is viewed very favorably by 23% and very unfavorably by four percent (4%). These numbers are little changed from the previous survey.

For Lamontagne, very favorables total eight percent (8%) and very unfavorables 11%. Binnie is seen very favorably by four percent (4%) and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%).

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Like most voters around the country, 55% of Granite State voters say the biggest problem with health care in America is the cost. Twenty-eight percent (28%) point instead to the lack of universal coverage. Just 10% cite the quality of care, and one percent (1%) says the inconvenience of scheduling is the biggest problem.

Forty-nine percent (49%) like the idea of a single-payer health care plan, while 39% oppose it. This is a higher level of support than is found nationally.

Forty-six percent (46%) think states should be able to opt out of the health care plan if it is passed by Congress, but 40% disagree. These findings are comparable to views nationwide.

Forty percent (40%) rate Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan as good or excellent. Twenty-four percent (24%) say it’s poor.

Thirty-four percent (34%) expect the situation there to get worse in the next six months, but 30% say it will get better. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe it will be about the same. This is a more optimistic assessment than is found nationally.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of New Hampshire voters believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, but 31% say the terrorists are winning. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say neither side is ahead. This is virtually identical to national beliefs on this question.

But New Hampshire voters take a harder line on another aspect of national security than is found nationally. Forty-six percent (46%) say the U.S. legal system worries too much about protecting individual rights in cases involving national security. Only 12% think the system worries too much about protecting national security in cases of that nature, while 31% say the balance is about right.

Obama won New Hampshire over John McCain with 54% of the vote in 2008, and 52% of the state’s voters approve of the job the president is doing, including 31% who strongly approve. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove of the president’s job performance, with 38% who strongly disapprove.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) also approve of Governor John Lynch’s job performance, down eight points from September. This number includes 23% who strongly approve. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disapprove of the job Lynch is doing, with 19% who strongly disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports has released Senate polls for Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, California and the special election in Massachusetts. Collectively, these polls define a difficult political environment for Democrats as 2010 begins.

New data also has been released on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.

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