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Election 2010: Florida Senate
Florida Senate: Crist, Rubio Still Ahead of Democrats’ Meek
Monday, February 01, 2010
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Both Republican hopefuls hold a double-digit lead over their likeliest Democratic opponent, Congressman Kendrick Meek, in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of this year’s race for the U.S. Senate in Florida. Governor Charlie Crist now has a 15-point lead on Meek among likely Florida voters, 48% to 33%. Given this match-up, 10% prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. Former House Speaker Marco Rubio now posts a 17-point lead on Meek, 49% to 32%. He had a 14-point lead on the Democrat in the previous survey and a similar margin in October. In a Rubio-Meek contest, six percent (6%) like another candidate, and 13% are undecided. In December, Crist led Meek by just six, 42% to 36%. At that time, Rubio enjoyed a double-digit lead. The real battle for now is for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida. Crist started off well ahead of Rubio. But his embrace last year of President Obama’s stimulus package helped prompt a conservative backlash against the governor, who last month found himself tied with Rubio among likely GOP Primary voters. Rasmussen Reports will release new Florida Republican Primary numbers later today. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The race to replace Crist as governor still leans Republican with little movement in either direction. GOP state Attorney General Bill McCollum leads Democrat Alex Sink 46% to 35%. Meek, like many Democrats nationally appears to be suffering from voter concern about the continuing bad economy and the now-stalled health care plan. Many senior citizens, in particular, were strongly opposed to the plan proposed by Obama and congressional Democrats. Just 28% of Florida voters now think it is at least somewhat likely that Congress will be able to agree on a smaller, bipartisan health care plan this year. Sixty-five percent (65%) say that’s not very or not at all likely. Five percent (6%) in the state currently rate the economy as good or excellent, while 58% say it’s poor. Twenty-five percent (25%) say the economy is getting better, but nearly twice as many (48%) think it’s getting worse. While the president called for a three-year freeze on discretionary government spending in his State of the Union speech last week, 58% of Florida voters say cutting taxes is the better way to create new jobs, while 12% favor increasing government spending. Obama narrowly carried Florida – 51% to 49% - over John McCain in November 2008. Only 42% of Florida voters now approve of Obama’s performance as president, while 58% disapprove. More tellingly, 25% strongly approve of the job he’s doing, but 47% strongly disapprove. That’s a higher level of disapproval than is found nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Thirteen percent (13%) of voters in Florida have a very favorable opinion of Crist, but the same number (13%) view him very unfavorably. For Rubio, very favorables total 23% and very unfavorables 11%. Meek is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by 17%. At this very early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals. Both Crist and Rubio lead Meek by two-to-one among male voters but have a more modest edge among female voters. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer either of the Republicans to Meek by roughly 20 points. Fifty-one percent (51%) of all Florida voters currently approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, including 10% who strongly approve. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove of his job performance, with 17% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are little changed from December. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters in Florida feel America is safer today than it was before the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. But, following the Christmas Day terrorist attempt on a U.S. airliner, 44% disagree. Those figures are similar to the national average. Thirty-three percent (33%) give the government good or excellent marks for its response to the Christmas Day incident. However, 43% rate that response as poor. Sixty-seven percent (67%) think another terrorist attack in the United States is at least somewhat likely in the next year. Seventy-one percent (71%) favor the use of full-body scanners at airports as a security precaution. Democratic Senate incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Barbara Boxer from California, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin find themselves in more competitive races than usual. Republicans lead open-seat Senate races in Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. North Carolina incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is ahead but potentially vulnerable. Political analyst Larry Sabato wrote recently that if the election were held today, “the (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.” Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Florida Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
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