Arizona Senator John McCain was the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2008, but he’s always had a challenging relationship with the GOP’s base voters.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey finds that 61% of Arizona Republicans think McCain has lost touch with those in his own party. That’s up eleven points from 50% in May. Only 33% of the Republican faithful in the state believe McCain has done a good job representing GOP values.

The good news for McCain is that his numbers aren’t as bad as some of his colleagues. Nationally, 74% of Republican voters say their representatives in Congress have lost touch with the GOP base.

Despite expected challenges to his reelection, 75% of Arizona Republicans say it’s likely McCain will win next year's GOP Primary. Among all voters, 71% believe he will win the nomination. The gap between the number who say McCain has lost touch with the party base and the number who say he’s likely to win the nomination is huge. But 50% of voters nationally think high reelection rates result from election rules that are “rigged to benefit members of Congress.”

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Fifty-six percent (56%) of all Arizona voters say they approve of the way McCain is performing his role as senator. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove. Those figures include 22% who Strongly Approve and 24% who Strongly Disapprove.

McCain receives approval from 64% of the state’s politically moderate voters, 58% of conservative voters and 41% of liberal voters.

McCain is likely to benefit at the polls from his continued opposition to the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Right now, just 41% of Arizona voters favor that plan, while 57% oppose it. Twenty-four percent (24%) strongly favor the legislation versus 47% who strongly oppose. These findings parallel the views of voters nationwide.

Nineteen percent (19%) say the quality of health care will improve if the plan is passed, but 55% say it will get worse. Twenty-one percent (21%) expect quality to stay the same.

Fifty-six percent (56%) predict that the cost of health care will go up with the passage of the plan, while 21% say the plan will achieve its stated goal of lowering costs. Sixteen percent (16%) say health care costs will stay the same.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) say passage of the plan will drive up the federal budget deficit, but six percent (6%) say it will reduce that deficit. Nineteen percent (19%) say it will have no impact.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Arizona voters say it is likely that taxes will be increased on the middle class to cover the cost of the health care legislation if it is passed. Sixty-three percent (63%) say a middle-class tax hike is very likely. Twenty-two percent (22%) say it’s not very or not at all likely.

McCain carried his home state over Obama 54% to 45% in last November’s election. Forty-four percent (44%) of Arizona voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, with 30% who strongly approve. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove of his job performance, including 47% who strongly disapprove. This is well below Obama’s job approval ratings nationally as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying potential 2010 Senate match-ups and has released findings from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina and Ohio. Later this week, we will release numbers from Senate match-ups in Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky and Louisiana.

Polling released on Monday shows Arizona’s embattled incumbentGovernor Jan Brewer, a Republican, trailing Democratic State Attorney General Terry Goddard in an early look at the 2010 race for governor.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent data on the 2009 governor’s race in New Jersey and Virginia along with the 2010 governor’s races in California, Colorado, Iowa, New York and Ohio. A Virginia update will be released later this week.

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