In New Jersey, this year's governor’s race may come down to turnout and how much support an independent candidate can hold onto.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey shows Republican challenger Chris Christie with 41% of the vote, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine at 39% and independent candidate Chris Daggett with 11%.

Compared to a week ago, that’s a four-point drop for Christie, a two-point decline for the governor and a two-point gain for Daggett. The number of undecided voters is up three points as well.

This continues a trend from the previous week. In fact, over the past two weeks, Christie has slipped six points, and Corzine has lost five. Daggett is up five points, as are the number of undecideds.

Christie’s edge in the race has been fading rapidly. His two-point advantage in the current polling is down from four points a week ago and seven points a month ago. This is typical of New Jersey politics as Democrats gain ground in the final weeks of a campaign.

That’s one reason no Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. Adding to the challenge this year, Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie during the final days which could be a game-changing factor.

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Measuring the ultimate impact of third-party candidates is always challenging. Many voters initially say they support an independent option and then change their minds as Election Day nears. That’s because they eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils among the major party candidates.

However, Daggett’s support may be solidifying more than most independent options. Many Garden State voters have already decided against voting for Corzine, and many are having a hard time deciding whether they can pull the lever for a Republican.

Currently, 16% of voters cite Daggett as their first preference. That’s unchanged from a week ago. However, a larger share of Daggett's voters appear to be sticking with him than before.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of those who initially express support for Daggett say they will stick with him. Twenty-four percent (24%) of those voters say they’ll end up voting for Christie, and 14% say they'll move in Corzine’s direction.

Among those who are undecided, 13% lean towards Daggett, seven percent (7%) towards Christie, and three percent (3%) lean in the incumbent’s direction. Many of the rest may simply stay home.

As for those who are certain they will vote and certain of how they will vote, Christie’s edge is the smallest it has ever been at just two percentage points.

The two major party candidates now have similar favorable ratings. For Corzine, the numbers are 41% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Christie’s totals are 47% favorable and 47% unfavorable. For the Republican, those numbers are a slight improvement over the past week but well down from earlier in the year.

Feelings remain stronger about the governor: 38% have a Very Unfavorable view of him while 27% say the same about Christie.

Daggett is now viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by just 32%. That unfavorable number is up five points over the past week. However, just 20% have strong feelings about him, one way or the other.

At this point, anybody who says with confidence how this race will turn out is either deluding themselves or attempting to delude someone else. The Democrats clearly have an edge in New Jersey when it comes to turnout, but the wavering Daggett supporters and undecided voters are more likely to head in the Republican direction than to the Democratic incumbent.

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