Florida: Kerry 48% Bush 43%

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

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Florida, the decisive state in Election 2000 and a toss-up for most of Election 2004 is now leaning towards Senator John Kerry.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Florida survey finds Senator John F. Kerry with 48% of the vote to President George W. Bush's 43%. A month ago, the candidates were tied in Florida with both Bush and Kerry attracting 46% of the vote.

Based upon this most recent survey data, we have moved Florida to the "Leans Kerry" category in our Electoral College projections.

In Florida, Bush holds a modest lead among male voters, but Kerry leads by double digits among women.

Fifty percent (50%) of Florida voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's little changed from a month ago... and close to his national Job Approval rating.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Florida men give the President their approval along with just 46% of women.

Data for Florida will be updated again early next month. Our recent state releases included Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Washington.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

This data has been compiled from a national telephone survey of 15,000 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports from June 1-30, 2004. Each night, 500 interviews with Likely Voters were conducted. National results for the survey during that time frame show that President Bush and Senator Kerry each attracted 45% of the vote. State-by-state samples carry a margin of error that varies from +/- 3 percentage points to +/- 5 percentage points depending upon the state. Data for California, Texas, and New York carries a 3 percentage point margin of error. For Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, the margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. For all other states, the margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. In all cases, the margin of error is expressed with a 95% level of confidence. In some states, oversampling and supplemental interviews were used to obtain an adequate sample size for reporting purposes.

State data from National Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters
June 1-30, 2004

Florida 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush	43%
Kerry	48%
Other	5%
Not Sure	4%

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