Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Follow the bouncing ball. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has now bounced to a 12-point lead over Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Santorum with 39% support to the former Massachusetts governor’s 27%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich follows from a distance with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 10%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Just over a week ago, it was Romney leading the pack with 34% after his win in the Florida Primary, followed by Gingrich 27%, Santorum 18% and Paul 11%. But then last week Santorum swept GOP caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota and a non-binding primary in Missouri as Gingrich continues to stumble in the race to be the conservative alternative to Romney.
Perhaps more tellingly, Santorum now trounces Romney 55% to 34% in a one-on-one matchup among likely GOP primary voters. This is the first time any challenger has led Romney nationally in a head-to-head match-up. Santorum also leads Romney head-to-head in Michigan.
Nationally, Romney still wins 47% to 38% paired against Gingrich and 47% to 42% running against only Paul.
Like Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Gingrich before him, Santorum has emerged as the leading anti-Romney candidate and taken the lead in the GOP race. Now the question is will he, unlike his predecessors, be able to hold onto that lead?
After all, 64% of likely primary voters nationwide still think Romney ultimately will win the Republican nomination, although that’s down from 75% a week ago. Just 18% see Santorum as the GOP nominee, but that’s up from three percent (3%) in the previous survey. Still, only 45% are certain of their vote at this time. Forty-nine percent (49%) say they could yet change their minds, and six percent (6%) have no initial preference.
Forty-one percent (41%) continue to view Romney as the strongest potential candidate against President Obama, but that’s down from 49% last week. Twenty-five percent (25%) now see Santorum as the strongest general election candidate, up from 10%. Paul remains the candidate that Republican voters by far consider the weakest national candidate.
Next up for the Republican field are February 28 primaries in Arizona and Michigan. It’s Santorum 35%, Romney 32% in Rasmussen Reports’ latest survey of likely Michigan GOP Primary Voters released yesterday. Less than two weeks before, Romney led Santorum 38% to 17% in the Wolverine State.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Nationally, Obama continues to lead all GOP candidates in general election match-ups. Rasmussen Reports updates the general election match-ups every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Both Santorum and Romney are close to Obama in the key states of Ohio and Florida.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Santorum. Romney is viewed favorably by 66%, Gingrich by 53% and Paul by 41%.
Nearly one-in-three Republican voters (32%) regard themselves as members of the Tea Party, and Santorum earns 53% of the Tea Party vote, with Romney a far distant second at 18%. Romney consistently has led the field among non-Tea Party Republicans, but now he and Santorum are tied among this group with 33% support each.
Among Republicans who say they are Very Conservative, it’s Santorum 53%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 17% and Paul five percent (5%). Santorum also now leads Romney 37% to 34% among Somewhat Conservative GOPers, with Gingrich at 14% and Paul at eight percent (8%).
Santorum leads Romney nearly four-to-one and Gingrich better than two-to-one among Evangelical Christian Republicans. Romney has generally led among GOP voters of other religious faiths in the past, but now Santorum edges him 35% to 30% among other Protestants and 45% to 33% among Catholics. Only among Republicans of all other faiths does Romney hold a 39% to 23% lead over the former Pennsylvania senator.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of all Catholic voters now disapprove of the job Obama’s dong following his administration’s new order forcing Catholic institutions to pay for contraception they morally oppose. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Catholics voted for Obama in November 2008.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter, the Rasmussen Report on radio and other media outlets.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $3.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on Election 2012, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.
