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What If Democrats Used Winner Take All?
A Commentary by Wesley Little
Thursday, April 03, 2008
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Even as the Obama and Clinton campaigns fight frantically to establish the appropriate yard-stick by which to judge the will of the American people, one fact has been largely ignored: Obama's significant delegate lead is largely a product of the Democrats' unique delegate allocation system. A remnant of the bitter convention of 1968 and the McGovern-Fraser Commission that followed, Democrats now award their presidential convention representatives in a proportional manner, under which delegates are given to all those surpassing certain percentage thresholds. We have to wonder, what would the race look like if the Democrats used the same "winner-take-all" system used in the Republican Party? The results are quite surprising, to say the least. Table 1. Pledged Delegate Totals Using Hypothetical "Winner Take All" System
If the Democrats were to allot their current state delegate totals in a winner-take-all format, Clinton would actually have a significant delegate advantage. Despite having won only 14 recognized contests to Obama's 30, Clinton would currently have a 120 (1738 to 1618) total delegate lead and a remarkable 167 (1427 to 1260) pledged delegate lead. These numbers give Texas' "prima-caucus" delegates to Clinton and do not include Florida, Michigan or the 693 total delegates and 566 pledged delegates still to be won in the next few months. Obviously, the Clinton campaign cannot argue for changing the system this late in the game, especially since they agreed to the ground-rules of the process before the campaign started. Yet in a race that has become principally about winning the several hundred uncommitted super-delegates, this argument could be used to provide cover for electors currently unwilling to go against the race's "clear leader". Table 2. Combined Pledged and Superdelegate Totals Using "Winner Take All"
The Clinton campaign could contend that it is the proportional allocation system's inherent "over-fairness" that is denying her the significant delegate gains that she justifiably deserves from winning states like Ohio, where Clinton's 10 percent margin of victory only garnered her 9 more delegates than Obama. This may be an effective argument for Sen. Clinton to justify going forward in the race, especially if she is able to pull closer to even in the popular vote after the contests in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESDemocrats & Unaffiliateds More Likely To Be Unemployed Than Republicans To Create Jobs, Voters Say Cut Taxes and Stop Spending Republicans Maintain Steady Lead on Generic Ballot Support for Congressional Health Care Proposal Up to 47%, 49% Opposed Voters’ Opinions of Congressional Leaders Remain Steady 62% Now Have Favorable View of Michelle Obama 47% Trust Private Sector More Than Government To Keep Health Care Costs Down, Quality Up 33% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction 51% Oppose Decision To Try Terrorists in New York City Advertisement
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