Friday, October 09, 2009
DELAWARE- SENATE: Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President's son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice President has great sway, but the dynasty issue helps Castle. With the placeholder senator, Biden disciple Ted Kaufman, serving until 2010, a Castle win would cause the seat to switch party columns, so expect massive spending on both sides for this small-state seat. It will be a classic test of the 2010 mood. If the year clearly tilts Republican, Castle will win. If 2010 turns out to be a standoff with only modest Republican gains, it's Biden in this solid Blue state. The early betting line from the Crystal Ball is slightly in favor of Castle , but this is a race that could wobble over the next year. Vice President Biden isn't about to see his son denied his old seat, and while he cannot ride Amtrak anymore, the V-POTUS may be traveling to the First State practically daily again.
SOUTH CAROLINA-02: Just a short month ago, who would have thought Joe Wilson would become a household name? Four weeks and one utterance of "You lie!" later, the four-term Republican congressman is locked in a tough reelection race that has garnered nationwide attention. Since the outburst, Wilson has become a hero of the right and one of the left's most despised villains. As a result, he and his opponent, 2008 challenger and former Marine Corps captain Rob Miller, have raised about $2 million apiece, a staggering sum considering that these two candidates combined did not raise $2 million during their 2008 matchup. The 2008 race was a surprisingly close one, with Wilson winning a narrow 54 percent victory, the same proportion of the vote that Republican presidential nominee John McCain garnered in the district. In many districts across the country, Wilson's shout would have been the death knell for his reelection, but South Carolina's Second district is decidedly conservative and many voters appear to agree with Wilson's message, if not his method of delivery. With over a year left in the campaign, it is also still unclear how Miller will handle his new, higher-profile role as nationally known challenger. Taking all of this into account, the Crystal Ball now rates SC-02 as a competitive "Leans Republican" race. Along with everyone else, we'll keep a close eye on it.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $3.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.