Thursday, July 31, 2008
It looks like a clean sweep for Alaska in the Senate and House. Both of the Republican incumbents, Sen. Ted Stevens , in office since 1968, and Rep. Don Young , who has held his seat since 1973, appear to be going down to defeat. Stevens' indictment on corruption charges July 29th makes it extremely difficult for him to win another term. He may well win the GOP nomination on August 26, since he has only token opposition, but already key Republicans are organizing to ask him to step down as the party standard-bearer.
If he does not--and some think Stevens will insist on fighting it out to the bitter end--then Democrat Mark Begich is all but elected. If Stevens resigns as the nominee, the GOP will try to find a competitive candidate, but that may be hard. Begich is well funded and leading in the polls; when you look like a winner, few want to oppose you. As for Don Young, we continue to believe he will lose in the GOP primary to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell , who will likely hold the House seat for Republicans in November. How the mighty are falling, even in seniority-addicted Alaska.
This entire piece of prose is pure speculation, of course. But hasn't it been fun?
Larry J. Sabato is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
See Other Commentary by Larry Sabato
See Other Political Commentary
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.