Polls Have Been Popping for Trump

The 2024 presidential election is less than six months away. Corporate media outlets are calling it a “tight race.” It probably is, as have been most recent presidential elections, but what do the polls say?

Polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting the views of a tiny fraction of a percent of the population, registered or likely voters, and are fluid depending on the news and issues of the day. Current events rapidly change, as do voter sentiments, and voter preferences may shift over the next six months.

For Trump supporters, Rasmussen Reports May 3 survey results are encouraging, with this headline, “Trump now +10 over Biden.”

Rasmussen Reports surveys likely U.S. voters, a more reliable sampling compared to simply registered voters, or even residents, meaning whoever answers the pollster’s phone call.

In a three-way contest between Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F Kennedy, Jr, 46% of likely voters would choose Trump, 36% Biden, and 9% Kennedy.

A crucial factor in any election is voter turnout, which hinges on voter enthusiasm. Trump has an advantage here too with 59% of his voters saying they are very excited about the upcoming election compared to only 50% of Biden’s voters.

Similarly, 60% of Republicans but only 45% of Democrats are excited about this year’s presidential election. Enthusiasm drives turnout.

Both candidates uniquely have a record to run on, as presidents. How are they doing at similar points in their respective presidencies? There is a simple way to ask this question.

Are you better off today compared to four years ago? The answer is apparent, and Trump needs to make this case loudly and frequently.

Lest you think Rasmussen Reports is an outlier, CNN confirms. In their recent poll among registered voters, Trump’s support sits at 49% compared to Biden at 43%.

Furthermore, 55% of Americans now see Trump’s presidency as a success while only 39% see Biden’s term as a success in the CNN poll.

What issues are important to voters? According to CNN, 65% of voters, “call the economy extremely important to their vote for president.” This compares to only 40% in 2020 and 46% in 2016 who felt that way.

“It’s the economy, stupid” as James Carville famously said during Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign.

For those voters saying the economy is “deeply important,” Trump has a huge 62% to 30% lead over Biden.

What about likability? Per the CNN poll, impressions of both current candidates are mostly negative. 58% of voters view Biden unfavorably compared to 55% for Trump.

In choosing between the two candidates, “They break for Trump, 43% to 31%.”

Rasmussen Reports has another way of comparing favorability between the two candidates, their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Comparing the exact same point in their respective presidencies, on May 9, 2020, Trump’s total approval was 49% compared to Biden on May 9, 2024, at only 40%.

Let’s look at one more poll to make sure CNN and Rasmussen Reports aren’t outliers. Gallup found that Biden’s 13^th quarter approval average was the lowest in history, at only 39%, going back as far as President Eisenhower.

By comparison, Trump, at the same point in his presidency, had 47% approval, eight points higher than Biden.

With all polls, it’s important to look at the methodology. Are those surveyed likely voters or simply registered voters, or only residents, some of whom may be ineligible to vote? Do the polls oversample one party versus the other? These factors can skew the results so always look beyond just the headline.

Remember that a poll is simply a snapshot in time, and much could change. The economy is volatile. We are fighting proxy world wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, perhaps soon in Taiwan. The border remains wide open with who knows how many terrorists already in America, waiting to unleash death and destruction. The culture war is ablaze, as noted recently on college campuses.

But at least today, Trump supporters have cause for optimism based on the above-mentioned polls. But don’t be overconfident or take your foot off the electoral gas pedal. There is much at stake in this election and America may not be able to recover from four more years of Biden and his merry band of tyrants.

Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer.

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