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War on Terror Update
Confidence in War Hits New High, But Voters Less Sure When Troops Coming Home
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Voter confidence in the War on Terror has reached its highest level ever, with 60% now saying the United States and its allies are winning, according to the first Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey on the issue since Election Day.

But voters are not quite as confident as they were before the election that President-elect Barack Obama will bring the troops home from Iraq within his first term. Now 62% think it is likely troops will come home in the next four years, compared to 75% in the last two surveys conducted in October. Even Democrats are slightly less confident, with 78% who say Obama will bring the troops home within his first term, compared to 85% in October.

Just 15% of voters say the terrorists are winning the War on Terror, which is the lowest level seen in tracking history dating back to April 2004. Another 18% say neither side is winning.

Prior to the latest poll, the highest level of confidence in the war was 55%, reached in the preceding three surveys conducted over the past three weeks.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of men say the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror, compared to 52% of women. However, this, too, is a new high in terms of female confidence in the direction of the war. The previous high was 50% on October 21.

Three out of four Republican voters (74%) say America and its allies are winning, as do 68% of unaffiliated voters. Only 42% of Democrats agree, while 20% say the terrorists are winning and 26% say it's a draw.

The number of people who believe the United States is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks similarly is at a record 52%. The previous high was 51% in mid-September. Just over a third (35%) disagree. Republicans are very confident that the country is safer today, as are unaffiliated voters. Democrats are not convinced, with just 31% who say the country is safer today.

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Even confidence in President Bush’s handling of the war is at its highest level in a year. Now 35% say the president is doing a good or excellent job handling the Iraq situation, while 44% say he is doing a poor job. Just one week ago, 28% of voters said Bush was doing a good or excellent job. The week before, the percentage was 27%.

As they have all year, most voters - 56% in the latest survey - think Obama’s top priority is bringing the troops home, while 32% think successfully finishing the mission is more important to him.

In a survey two days after the election, nearly half of voters (47%) said Obama will do a good or excellent job handling national security issues. Thirty-four percent (34%) expected him to do a poor job.

While confidence in the War on Terror and the president has gone up, short- and long-term optimism on the war in Iraq has remained relatively stable. Less than half of voters (45%) think the situation in Iraq will get better in the next six months, down from 51% a week ago. One in five voters (21%) say the situation will get worse, up from 17% a week ago.

In the long-term, 42% of voters say the U.S. mission in Iraq will be judged a success, up slightly from 38% a week ago. Thirty-four percent (34%) believe the mission will be viewed as a failure, down from 42% a week ago.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


Who is Winning the War on Terror?

Dates

US/Allies

Terrorists

Nov 11

60%

15%

Nov 4

52%

19%

Oct 6

52%

19%

Sep 29

55%

21%

Sept 8

54%

20%

Sept 1

47%

20%

Aug 25

54%

19%

Aug 18

50%

19%

Aug 11

51%

20%

Aug 4

48%

21%

Jul 28

50%

21%

Jul 21

51%

16%

Jul 14

48%

20%

Jul 7

46%

23%

Jun 30

42%

26%

Jun 9

43

24

Jun 2

42

24

May 9-10

39

27

Apr 16-17

45

24

Mar 24-25

47

20

Feb 29-Mar 2

46

22

Feb 1-3

49

23

Jan 2-3, 2008

43

25

Nov 26-27

47

24

Oct 22-23

43

30

Sep 21-23

39

28

Aug 20-21

39

32

Jul 18-19

36

36

Jun 15-17

36

32

Jun 4-5

40

32

May 7-8

36

34

Apr 11-12

37

33

Mar 19-20

38

34

Feb 21-22

36

36

Jan 29-30

37

32

Jan 3-4, 2007

33

36

For history prior to January 2007, click here.

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