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White House Watch: Warren Tops Trump One-on-One

Friday, May 24, 2019

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts edges President Trump in the latest White House Watch hypothetical 2020 matchup.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Warren with 46% support to Trump’s 44%. Ten percent (10%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Forty-five percent (45%) share a favorable opinion of Warren, while another 45% view her unfavorably. This includes 17% with a Very Favorable opinion and 32% with a Very Unfavorable one. Just 10% don’t know enough about Warren to venture any kind of opinion of her, making her one of the better-known candidates in the race for next year’s Democratic presidential nomination.

In previous White House Watch surveys this year, only former Vice President Joe Biden has beaten Trump in a one-on-one matchup. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Kamala Harris of California all lose to the incumbent.

Given the large number of candidates entering the race for next year’s Democratic nomination, Rasmussen Reports has opted to run a series of matchups over two-week cycles as the contest continues to develop. These longer cycles mean the matchup findings will be based on 5,000 respondents rather than the usual 1,000 for our regular surveys, and they lower the margin of error. See the results in surveys so far.

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The survey of 5,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 12-16 and May 19-23, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Democrats running for the White House face a big obstacle in Trump’s booming economy, but most adults in their party are banking on an economic downturn by next year.

Warren earns 75% of the Democratic vote in a matchup with Trump, while the incumbent wins 79% of his fellow Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Warren posts a slight three-point lead, but 17% of these voters are undecided.

Trump leads among men and those 40 and over, Warren among women and younger voters.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Democrats – and 63% of all voters - think Democrats are likely to choose a woman or a person of color to be their 2020 nominee.

The contest to be the next Democratic presidential nominee is shaping up literally as a free-for-all. Warren is promising if elected to forgive most student debt and make public universities free, all with a 10-year price tag of $1.25 trillion. But 73% of Americans recognize that Warren's free college plan just means taxpayers will be paying that tuition.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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