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White House Watch: Trump 42%, Clinton 40%

Thursday, July 07, 2016

The presidential race has grown a bit tighter in this week’s White House Watch survey.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Donald Trump with 42% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton earns 40%. Thirteen percent (13%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This survey was taken Tuesday evening following FBI Director James Comey's announcement that his agency would not seek any indictments of Clinton despite her "extremely careless" handling of classified information while serving as secretary of State. Most voters disagree with Comey’s decision.

Trump pulled ahead of Clinton last week 43% to 39%, his highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. Support for Clinton remains below the level of support she received for most of June.

Rasmussen Reports will release new presidential race numbers with Libertarian Gary Johnson in the mix tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern.

Trump now earns 73% support among his fellow Republicans and picks up 13% of the Democratic vote. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats like Clinton, as do 11% of GOP voters. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump holds a 20-point lead, but 33% of these voters like some other candidate or are undecided.

(More below)

White House Watch - 07-07-16

Voters predicted months ago what the FBI would decide. Sixty-five percent (65%) think it’s likely Clinton broke the law by sending and receiving e-mails containing classified information through a private e-mail server while serving as secretary of State. But just 25% said in January that it was even somewhat likely she would be charged with a felony.

The final report by the special congressional committee investigating the 2012 terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya, released last week hasn’t significantly changed voters’ opinions about how that incident will impact Clinton’s bid for the White House: 51% still believe it will hurt her. Nearly as many (49%) believe Clinton lied to the families of those killed in Benghazi about the cause of their deaths.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 5, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump how holds a 15-point lead among men; Clinton leads by 11 among women. Clinton holds a double-digit lead among those under 40 while continuing to trail among older voters. But women and younger voters are also the most likely to prefer some other candidate or be undecided.

Clinton continues to hold a wide lead among blacks. Trump leads by 11 points among whites, while the two are nearly tied among other minority voters.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters who agree with the FBI’s decision not to indict Clinton support her in the matchup with Trump. Seventy-one percent (71%) of those who disagree with the decision back Trump.

Trump has vowed to renegotiate NAFTA and other international free trade deals if elected president, saying they are costing U.S. jobs and killing the economy. Clinton's primary opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders, is also an outspoken opponent of those deals. Supporters of the free trade deals including Clinton, President Obama and many leading Republicans say they lower prices for American consumers. Voters are not big fans of free trade deals like NAFTA but also strongly believe that the politicians negotiating those deals don’t care what they think anyway.

Americans strongly agree with both major presidential candidates about the importance of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States and are willing to pay more for consumer goods to make it happen.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren recently joined Clinton on the presidential campaign trail, fueling speculation of an all-woman national ticket. But most voters - including Democrats and women - say a vice presidential nomination for Warren wouldn't help Clinton's chances for the White House.

The president campaigned with Clinton for the first time this week. Obama continues to enjoy some of the best job approval ratings of his entire presidency.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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