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Trump Change: Trump Still Running Strong With Iowa Looming

Friday, January 22, 2016

Following Sarah Palin’s endorsement and with just over a week to go until the Iowa caucus, Republican voters are more strongly convinced than ever that Donald Trump will be their party’s presidential nominee.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest weekly Trump Change survey finds that 72% of Likely Republican Voters think Trump is likely to win the party’s nomination, down just two points from last week’s high of 74%. But that includes 40% who now say his nomination is Very Likely, the highest level of strong certainty to date. Twenty-four percent (24%) of GOP voters still consider a Trump nomination unlikely, but only seven percent (7%) say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

When Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June of last year, just 27% of Republicans – and 23% of all voters – said he was likely to end up as the 2016 nominee. 

Among all likely voters, 60% now see Trump as the likely GOP nominee. That’s up slightly from last week’s 58% and is just a point below the highest finding since the weekly Trump Change survey began in mid-August. Twenty-eight percent (28%) now consider his nomination Very Likely, also a new high. Thirty-four percent (34%) think Trump is unlikely to be the nominee, but just 12% say it’s Not At All Likely.

Thirty percent (30%) of GOP voters believe Palin’s endorsement of Trump on Tuesday will help the billionaire developer’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination. Twenty-four percent (24%) say her endorsement will hurt Trump instead, while 35% say it will have no impact. Voters in general view the Palin endorsement more negatively.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 20-21, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump recently responded to critics of his abrasive campaign rhetoric by saying he would “gladly accept the mantle of anger” because the government is being run by “incompetent people.” Most voters, especially Republicans, are angry at Congress and the current policies of the federal government. 

Most Democrats (54%) now say Trump is likely to be the GOP standard-bearer, a view shared by 56% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Men continue to believe more strongly than women that Trump will be the eventual nominee.

Whites feel more strongly than black and other minority voters that Trump will win the nomination, but most voters in all three groups now see a Trump nomination as likely.

The latest monthly Hillary Meter finds that 83% of Likely Democratic Voters think Hillary Clinton is likely to be their party’s presidential nominee in 2016, including 43% who say it is Very Likely.

Trump remains tied with Clinton in a hypothetical 2016 matchup.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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