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Clinton vs. Trump: Still A Dead Heat

Monday, December 28, 2015

Presidential frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump remain all tied up in a hypothetical matchup heading into 2016.

If the 2016 presidential election was held today, 37% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Clinton, while 36% would vote for Trump. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a sizable 22% would choose some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These findings are nearly identical to those measured in October when Trump picked up 38% support to Clinton’s 36%.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats back Clinton, up five points from October. Trump draws support from 63% of Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Unaffiliated voters prefer Trump 36% to 25%, but 29% of these voters like some other candidate. These findings also are similar to the October survey.

Clinton and Trump are currently seen as the likely nominees by large majorities of voters in their respective parties.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 22-23, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The race between Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is closer than ever following the Democrats’ most recent debate, but Clinton is the heavy favorite among voters who are already certain of their vote in 2016.

Trump still holds the lead in our latest look at the race for the GOP presidential nomination following his party’s latest debate. Trump's voters are by far the least likely to say they’re going to change their minds.

Men prefer Trump over Clinton by a 41% to 31% margin, while women prefer Clinton by a similar 42% to 31% margin.

Voters under 40 give Clinton a 39% to 27% edge over Trump, while middle-aged voters are evenly divided between the two. Senior citizens prefer Trump 45% to 33%.

White voters prefer Trump 41% to 31%, while black and other minority voters give Clinton substantial leads.

Seven percent (7%) of Republicans prefer Clinton in a matchup with Trump; 12% of Democrats opt for Trump if those are their choices.

Voters are evenly divided when asked whether Clinton or Trump would best keep this country safe from terrorism. Trump holds a double-digit lead in voter trust when it comes to the economy and immigration.

Fifty-two percent (52%) believe Clinton has not been honest in her disclosures and testimony related to the attack in Benghazi in September 2012 that led to the murder of the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, but that was before her day-long public appearance before a congressional panel. Right after that appearance, though, just 31% of voters said they trust Clinton in general, but even fewer (24%) trust Trump.

In recent months, much of the public controversy surrounding the Benghazi investigation has focused on the discovery of Clinton’s use of a private, non-government email server while she was secretary of State. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters think it’s likely Clinton broke the law by sending and receiving e-mails containing classified information through this private e-mail server.

Despite intense criticism from both his Democratic and Republican presidential rivals, Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims coming to the United States has the support of a sizable majority of Republicans – and a plurality of all voters.

Voters are far more likely to think the media is biased against Trump than against Clinton.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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