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Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Is Still Riding High

Friday, March 11, 2016

Belief that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee remains near record highs.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national Trump Change survey finds that 80% of Likely Republican Voters still believe the billionaire businessman is likely to win this year’s GOP nomination, with 48% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 80% and an all-time high of 50% a week ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among all likely voters, 74% think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 39% who say it is Very Likely. That compares to 75% and 45% in the previous survey, the highest findings since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly Trump Change survey last August

This survey was taken Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, so it does not include reactions to last night’s GOP debate.

When Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June of last year, just 27% of Republicans – and 23% of all voters – said he was likely to end up as the 2016 GOP nominee. 

Fifteen percent (15%) of Republicans say Trump is unlikely to win the nomination, but that includes only six percent (6%) who feel it is Not At All Likely.  Nineteen percent (19%) of all voters share this perception, with seven percent (7%) who see a Trump nomination as Not At All Likely.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 8-9, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Only 31% of Republicans think candidates who don’t win the party’s presidential nomination should be required to publicly support the person who is nominated. Thirty-six percent (36%) of GOP voters – and 24% of all voters – say they are likely to vote for Trump if he fails to win the Republican nomination and runs as a third-party candidate. 

Men remain more confident than women that Trump will be the eventual nominee, although a sizable majority of women believe that’s likely to be the case.

Roughly three-out-of-four voters of all ages see Trump as likely to win the Republican nomination.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters not affiliated with either major party expect Trump to be the nominee, compared to 65% of Democrats.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say Hillary Clinton is likely to be their presidential nominee this year, according to our latest monthly Hillary Meter. 

Mitt Romney, the unsuccessful Republican presidential nominee in 2012, has come out swinging against Trump and has even indicated he might accept the GOP nomination this year at a brokered national convention. But Romney’s endorsement doesn’t mean much to voters nor are they likely to vote for him in the fall.

Some in the Republican establishment are pushing the phrase “Never Trump” on social media as an expression of opposition to his success in the primaries. When asked which phrase best represents their opinion of Trump, 54% of all voters say “Never Trump,” while just 23% say “Always Trump," a phrase pushed by his most ardent supporters. GOP voters, though, are evenly divided.

Democrats are more excited about a Clinton-Trump matchup this fall than Republicans are.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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