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Trump Change: More GOPers Than Ever Say Trump Very Likely To Be Nominee

Friday, March 04, 2016

Despite two hard-hitting debates and a strong denunciation of Donald Trump by Mitt Romney, the last Republican presidential candidate, voters are even more convinced that Trump will be this year’s GOP nominee.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports Trump Change survey finds that 80% of Likely Republican Voters believe that the billionaire businessman is likely to win the GOP nomination. This includes a new high of 50% who say it is Very Likely and compares to 81% and 45% a week ago.

Among all likely voters, 75% say Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, with 45% who think it’s Very Likely. Both these findings represent sizable gains from last week’s previous highs of 70% and 37% respectively. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This survey was taken Wednesday evening and last night when the most recent GOP debate was held and after Romney had strongly criticized Trump in a highly-publicized speech earlier in the day.

Sixteen percent (16%) of Republicans still believe Trump is unlikely to be their nominee, but that includes only four percent (4%) who say it is Not At All Likely. Eighteen percent (18%) of all voters share that view, with seven percent (7%) who consider a Trump nomination Not At All Likely.

When Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June of last year, just 27% of Republicans – and 23% of all voters – said he was likely to end up as the 2016 GOP nominee.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 2-3, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton has now moved ahead of Trump in a hypothetical presidential matchup. 

Sizable majorities of both men and women and voters of all ages see Trump as the likely GOP nominee.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats and 74% of voters not affiliated with either major political party agree that Trump is likely to win the nomination. That compares to 62% and 69% a week ago and represents new highs for both these groups.

Whites continue to be more convinced than blacks and other minority voters that Trump will eventually be nominated.

In our most recent survey of the Republican presidential field just after Jeb Bush dropped out of the race two weeks ago, Trump had widened his lead.

Trump and Clinton are the presidential front-runners in their respective parties, but right now there are more voters who say they will vote against them than will vote for them.

When it comes to which candidate voters trust more on key issues, Trump leads when it comes to the economy, job creation and immigration. Clinton has held her lead on social issues but has widened her advantage on the environment. The two are virtually tied now when voters are asked whom they trust more to handle national security. 

Win or lose, Trump is doing the Republican Party a favor.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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