Thursday, December 17, 2015
Just before the Democrats’ third pre-primary debate Saturday night, Hillary Clinton remains comfortably ahead in the expectations game.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Hillary Meter finds that 87% of Likely Democratic Voters think Clinton is likely to be their party’s presidential nominee in 2016, with 56% who say it is Very Likely. Just 13% feel the former secretary of State and first lady is not very or Not At All Likely to win the nomination. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
That marks very little change from a month ago and is virtually identical to the findings in the first monthly Hillary Meter in July.Confidence in Clinton’s chances faded slightly in between the two but jumped following her performance in the second debate in early November.
Among all likely voters, 80% believe Clinton is the likely Democratic nominee, with 52% who say it is Very Likely. Seventeen percent (17%) disagree, and that includes only eight percent (8%) who say it’s Not At All Likely. This is a slight improvement from a month ago.
By comparison, our latest weekly Trump Change survey finds that 70% of Likely Republican Voters – and 55% of all voters – think Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee next year. We’ll release new numbers tomorrow and see if the latest Republican debate has made any difference.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 14-15, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Fifty percent (50%) of Likely Democratic Voters said in mid-November that they would vote for Clinton if the Democratic presidential primary were held in their state today. Twenty-nine percent (29%) said they would opt for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, while six percent (6%) preferred former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.
Rasmussen Reports will survey Democratic voters again right after Saturday night’s debate.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of all voters believe Clinton in political terms is a liberal. Thirty percent (30%) say she is a moderate, while just five percent (5%) describe her as conservative. These findings have changed little from past surveys, but in Rasmussen Reports’ first Hillary Meter – in April 2005 during her last run for the presidency - 43% said Clinton was liberal, 34% moderate and eight percent (8%) conservative.
Men and women are in general agreement that Clinton is the likely nominee, although men are more inclined to say it’s Very Likely.
The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to view a Clinton nomination as Very Likely. Our last survey of the Democratic race found Clinton and Sanders running even among voters under 40.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans and 72% of voters not affiliated with either major party think Clinton is likely to be the Democratic nominee.
In a survey taken after the terrorist killings in Paris but before the massacre in San Bernardino, California, voters were equally divided when asked whether Clinton or Trump would do a better job protecting America from Islamic terrorism.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.