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Hillary Meter: Clinton’s Chances Jump After Second Debate

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Democratic voters are more convinced than they have been in months that Hillary Clinton will represent their party in next year’s presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports' latest Hillary Meter finds that 85% of Likely Democratic Voters believe Clinton is likely to be their party’s presidential candidate, a seven-point jump from last month and the highest finding since the first edition of the Meter in mid-July. The latest finding includes 58% who think Clinton is Very Likely to win the nomination, up eight points from the previous survey and up 18 points from September. Just 11% of Democrats say Clinton is not very or Not At All Likely to be the nominee. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Still, Clinton didn’t move an inch among Democratic voters in a hypothetical primary ballot following Saturday night’s debate even though there were two fewer candidates on stage. Clinton and her nearest rival Bernie Sanders are now tied among voters under 40. 

Among all Likely Voters, 77% now believe Clinton is likely to be the next Democratic presidential candidate, up eight points from the previous survey. That includes 50% who say her candidacy is Very Likely, a 13-point jump from October. Just 16% now consider that outcome unlikely, with six percent (6%) who say it is Not At All Likely.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on November 15-16, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports will continue to release the Hillary Meter monthly to regularly update public perceptions of the former first lady on her march to the White House. We also release a weekly Friday feature called Trump Change which tracks Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s performance in the GOP race. Rasmussen Reports will consider regular tracking features for other candidates depending on the dynamics of the race.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of all voters view Clinton as politically liberal, up slightly from last month. Only six percent (6%) say she is conservative, while 28% consider her a moderate. In the first Hillary Meter – in April 2005 – 43% said Clinton was liberal, eight percent (8%) conservative and 34% moderate.

Among Democrats, 50% consider Clinton a moderate, while 36% think she’s politically liberal. Nine percent (9%) regard her as conservative.

Sizable majorities of Republicans (81%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (61%) see Clinton as a liberal.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of GOP voters and 71% of unaffiliateds think Clinton is likely to end up the nominee. Both findings are up from the previous survey.

Majorities of voters of all ages think a Clinton nomination is inevitable, but voters 40 and older feel this way more strongly than younger voters do. Younger voters are less likely than their elders to view Clinton as a liberal.

Clinton has few fans among active and retired military personnel.

Voters are more convinced than ever that the incident in Benghazi, Libya in which the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans were killed on her watch will hurt Clinton's bid for the White House

What’s in a phrase? President Obama and the Democrats running for the presidency including Clinton won’t say it. Republicans say if you can’t say it, you can’t begin to win the War on Terror. The phrase is “radical Islamic terrorism.” 

Just 31% trust Clinton, but even fewer (24%) trust Republican front-runner Trump.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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