The House: A Big Sort Lowers the Odds of a Big Wave By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Two of the three major ingredients that went into the huge numerical House gains that the winning side made in the 2010 and 2018 midterms are not present for Democrats in 2026.
— One of those, however, is that the opposition party started those cycles with far fewer seats than the Democrats hold now, which is hardly a bad thing for them. But that should also inform our expectations about the size of the gain Democrats could make in 2026 and how it would compare to midterm history.
— The other is that the House is much more sorted along partisan lines now than it was in either 2010 or even 2018, meaning that the party control of House seats is better aligned with how districts vote at the presidential level. This level of sorting also likely helps explain why Republicans in 2022 were able to flip the House, but only made modest gains in doing so—and also why Republicans can plausibly argue that they could hold onto the House next year.
— If the House remains so sorted along presidential voting lines, it stands to reason that large numerical swings in House seats would become rarer, even as the House majority itself would often be up for grabs.
