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March 1, 2024

Some Idiosyncratic Observations of the Elections So Far By Michael Barone

Herewith some idiosyncratic, perhaps eccentric, observations on the electoral contests so far in this presidential cycle.

1. Turnout is down. In the first five contests -- the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan primaries -- Republican turnout was down from 2016, the most recent cycle with serious contests. That's based on precincts currently reporting and the ace New York Times number crunchers' estimates of as-yet-uncounted votes.

February 29, 2024

Homeowners Still Confident in Market

Higher interest rates have had little impact on how confident American homeowners are in the resale value of their homes.

February 29, 2024

67% of N.C. Voters Favor Immigration Reduction

North Carolina has added 5 million residents since 1980, and two-thirds of voters there support reducing immigration to control the state’s explosive growth.

White letter R on blue background
February 29, 2024

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two By J. Miles Coleman

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— This is the second part of our history of presidential-Senate split-ticket results, from World War II to now. This part covers the mid-1980s to present, a timeframe that started with many instances of split results and ended with hardly any at all.

— In 1984 and 1988, amidst large GOP victories at the presidential level, more than a dozen Republican-won states sent Democrats to the Senate both years.

— The 1990s, when Democrats were successful at the presidential level, split-ticket voting tended to benefit Republicans in the Senate, making the decade an exception in the postwar era.

— In the 2000s, Democrats were back to benefitting from the split-ticket dynamic, first under a Republican president, George W. Bush, then with a Democrat, Barack Obama.

— Montana, a state which Senate Democrats are defending this year in a Toss-up race, is the state that has split its ticket most often in the postwar era. And almost every state has split its ticket at least once during that time.

February 28, 2024

Arizona Senate: Kari Lake Leads Democrat Gallego

Arizona Republican Kari Lake has a three-point lead over Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in this year’s U.S. Senate race, and Lake’s margin would be slightly wider if incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decides to seek reelection as an independent.

February 28, 2024

Michigan Takes a U-Turn Back to the Rust Belt By Stephen Moore

No state in modern times has transitioned from a worker freedom state to one that forces workers to join a union and pay dues to labor bosses. All the momentum across the country in the last two decades has been in the opposite direction: allowing workers the right to choose a union -- or not.

February 28, 2024

Taxation Without Reason By John Stossel

   My income tax is due in a few weeks!

February 27, 2024

23% Have Already Filed Their Taxes

The Internal Revenue Service deadline is seven weeks away, and almost a quarter of Americans have already filed their income taxes.

February 27, 2024

Most Suspect Putin in Navalny’s Death

A majority of American voters blame Russian President Vladimir Putin for opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s recent death in prison, but don’t think economic sanctions will have much effect on Putin’s regime.

February 27, 2024

Why Online News Isn't Saving Journalism By Daniel McCarthy

   Bad news for the media often feels like good news for conservatives.

February 26, 2024

29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending February 22, 2024.

February 26, 2024

47% Think Democrats May Replace Biden as Candidate

Nearly half of voters think it’s likely the Democratic Party will find another candidate to replace President Joe Biden this year, and a former first lady is a favorite pick for the candidate switcheroo.

February 24, 2024

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 24, 2024

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

February 23, 2024

Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index - Data Ending February 21, 2024

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for February decreased to 85.3, down nearly four points from 89.1 in January.

February 23, 2024

Biden Open-Door Policy: Some Facts and Historical Context By Michael Barone

What's been missing these past couple of months from the coverage of and debate over the failed immigration bill? Some important basic facts and lots of historical context.

February 23, 2024

Election Integrity: 54% Say Not Enough Done to Prevent Cheating

A majority of voters still believe cheating is likely to affect this year’s election, and don’t think government officials have done enough to protect election integrity

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February 22, 2024

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part One By J. Miles Coleman

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the post-World War II era, there have been nearly 200 instances of states voting for one party for president and another for Senate in presidential election years.

— This type of ticket splitting has generally been to the benefit of Democrats, who have been out of the White House for a slight majority of that timespan.

— The split-ticket trend has been declining, but Democrats will want to reverse that to some degree this year.

February 22, 2024

48% Want Fani Willis Kicked Off Trump Case

Nearly half of voters believe Fani Willis, the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, should be barred from prosecuting the election interference case against former President Donald Trump and his associates.

February 21, 2024

Nearly a Third of Voters Favor Reparations for Slavery

Support for reparations payments to the descendants of slaves has decreased and, even among voters who favor reparations, many doubt that Congress would pass such a measure.

February 21, 2024

Voters Consider Border Security More Important Than Ukraine

Securing the borders of the United States is a higher priority for voters than the war in Ukraine, and most agree with a Republican senator’s criticism of more military aid for Ukraine.